Dear Mr. Market:
Aside from extending our warmest wishes to you for a Happy Thanksgiving, we want to remind you that there is something else happening this time of year. We’re entering the strongest part of the year for the stock market as well as one that historically has the best chance to surprise everyone to the upside now that the midterm elections have passed.
Continue readingDear Mr. Market:
Everyone following the markets is aware that we’re dealing with global economic stresses, a bottle necked supply chain, geopolitical tensions, 40 year highs with inflation, rising rates, and literally the worst start to a stock market year since 1970. It’s got the entire crowd nodding their heads in agreement that these are some brutal times. We’re also clearly in an environment with much groupthink and division…but more on that later.
Continue readingDear Mr. Market:
November 3rd is looming large in many minds this year. That’s right, it will be Dolph “Ivan Drago” Lundgren’s 63rd birthday! Big news for sure, but unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know we also have a presidential election to decide.
We know one of these three will be celebrating November 3rd. How about the other two?
Okay, you may not be celebrating the great movie villain that day, but hopefully you do have a plan for voting. Many investors are wondering if they need to have a plan for their portfolios, either leading up to or following election day. There are interesting market factors to consider around election years, but are they compelling enough to act on?
In the most recent edition of “the Guide“, we focused it much on how the election will potentially pan out and what “Mr. Market” has done in years past as well as how that could play out in this very unusual environment. Click here to view the newsletter.
Continue readingDear Mr. Market:
We’ve written you hundreds of letters over the past decade and on occasion it’s nice to put a face with the name! Last week, Matt Pixa of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, was given the honor and opportunity to present an Economic Outlook to the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce.
We share it with you here and look forward to your feedback and questions!
PS- Click here to view the entire presentation but the “meat” of the show starts exactly at the 10 minute mark. Enjoy!
Dear Mr. Market:
For some of our newer readers it might serve us well to remind everyone of who you are and what this “Mr. Market” character is all about. If you haven’t read Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, you need to. Even though it was written in 1949, much of what Graham wrote is still applicable today and it’s simply one of the best books on the stock market ever written. Warren Buffett himself loves the book and says that it changed his life. Here’s a summary from Buffett and his description of our very own “Mr. Market”: Continue reading
Dear Mr. Market:
Today marks the anniversary of the stock market bottom 11 years ago. How ironic is it that on March 9th 2009, when the market and everyone in finance was curled up in a fetal position, we now are witnessing a market drubbing like we haven’t seen in years on that same anniversary date? For those with short-term memory lapses, 11 years ago the Dow Jones went from 14,164 in October of 2007 down to 6,547 on March 9, 2009. The “Financial Crisis” of that period effectively saw a -53.77% decline in the stock market. What has ensued since then happens to be the longest bull market run in history. Continue reading
Dear Mr. Market:
Is your bracket already busted? This year’s March Madness tournament opened up with very few upsets until this past weekend. Much like the stock market, we see a similar trend happening right now. What follows is how we see things panning out but first, here’s a little background on how one of the most famous sporting events in the United States correlates to the investing landscape.
Seven years ago we became the first Registered Investment Advisor to use the NCAA basketball tournament as a way to show our readers a forward-looking view on the stock market! We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
CLICK THE LINK TO VIEW OUR Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2017
Large Cap
Last year started off much differently than 2017 and as we wrap up the first quarter …some trends are emerging while others continue. If you eyeball the overall theme of this years bracket it will become clear that we’re picking some stocks that should continue to do well under the Trump administration. Whether you love him or hate him, ever since Donald Trump assumed office, the stock market has risen. The proverbial “Trump bump” is real and while we personally believe he needs to stay away from Twitter, there is no question that the stock market and certain economic sectors are primed to perform. Continue reading
Dear Mr. Market:
It’s that time of year again….here comes the holidays. One of the most famous Christmas poems ever begins like this:
‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro’ the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;
What if we changed a few words to reflect what Mr. Market will be thinking about instead of sugarplums and Christmas stockings? What is he thinking on Election Day?
‘Twas the day of the Election, when all through the nation
Every citizen was encouraged to get to a voting station;
Constant stories of Wikileaks and groping
Had every American and the stock market moping;
The media was franticly filling their time with endless chatter
All in hopes that our eyeballs would think a new President would matter;
Whether you’re liberal or conservative we all want a sound future for our girls and boys
As it relates to the stock market it simply prays for an end to this noise;
So goodnight to all and may you wake tomorrow
Knowing full well that some will be joyful and others in total sorrow.
We’ve obviously abbreviated our stock market poem to center on the real question so many investors have: Will this election result drive the markets higher or lower? Continue reading
Dear Mr. Market:
How dare we put you on the spot like this?!? What an awful question! How will you (the stock market) react if Trump wins or if Hillary wins? By the way…as an aside….a great client of ours recently asked why everyone refers to Trump by his last name and Hillary by her first name. Why is that?
Depending on which side you’re on, this question may initially seem like simple semantics but it’s not. Are you “presidential” if you roll with a campaign based on your first name? Do you “feel the Bern” or did you “Trust in Ted”? Whether you’re a proponent of Hillary for President or Hillary for prison…it’s still Hillary. Where are we at America?
At My Portfolio Guide, the one thing we typically don’t shy away from is having a clear opinion. There are some great firms out there that simply can’t give you one! You’ll hear what you want to hear. They fear losing your “vote” or ruffling feathers. Yes…we understand that balance too, but as much as our job is about deciphering news versus noise…it does become important to take a stance. Continue reading
Dear Mr. Market: 