Category Archives: Investing

Warren Buffett Is 60% Cash: Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?

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Dear Mr. Market:

A few months ago, when the hype machine was redlining over the SpaceX IPO, we wrote about the dangers of chasing glamorous narratives on day one. We noted how easy it is to get blinded by shiny, new tech stories while glossing over basic valuation rules. We love the excitement of a hot market.

But while the retail crowd is busy looking for spaceships, the most successful investor in human history is quietly building a fortress out of boring, old-fashioned greenbacks.

Lately, you’ve given the financial media a lot of ammunition, Mr. Market. The talking heads are looking at Berkshire Hathaway’s balance sheet and shouting from the rooftops. Under the strategic guidance of chairman Warren Buffett and CEO Greg Abel, the cash hoard has climbed to an astronomical $397.4 billion.

Naturally, the “perma-bears”…or those we affectionately call the “Broken Clock Club” (because they’re guaranteed to be right twice a day)…are having a absolute field day. They point frantic fingers at Berkshire’s $400 billion mountain of cash and Treasury bills, screaming, “Look! Even Buffett is hoarding cash because the bubble is about to pop!”

It sounds logical. But it’s a total mirage.

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SpaceX Is Going Public. Here’s Why We’re Not Chasing It on Day One

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Dear Mr. Market:

In June of 1997, a little online bookstore called Amazon went public at a market capitalization of approximately $440 million. Today, Amazon is worth nearly $3 trillion. A $10,000 investment at that IPO would have turned into a genuinely life-changing sum of money.

Naturally, investors are now looking at the upcoming SpaceX IPO… ticker SPCX, expected to list on Nasdaq around June 12th , and asking the same question: “Is this the next Amazon?”

Maybe. But there is one major difference that most people glossing over the headlines haven’t fully absorbed.

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2026

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Dear Mr. Market:

It’s that time of year again. The nets are being cut down, the office bracket pools are being filled out, and somewhere right now a 12-seed is about to ruin someone’s perfect bracket. Welcome to March Madness…the one time of year when a school nobody has heard of can knock off a powerhouse, and when the chalk favorites don’t always survive the first weekend.

We’ve been publishing our annual March Madness Investing Bracket longer than anyone else on Wall Street, and each year it gives us the opportunity to do something most investment firms won’t: put our themes, our convictions, and our best ideas out in public, bracket them against each other, and let the logic play out. Not every pick wins. Not every #1 seed survives. That’s kind of the point.

This year’s tournament feels particularly loaded. Duke and the Boozer twins are the consensus favorite to cut down the nets…a Blue Blood program with generational talent that almost no one is betting against. Michigan, Arizona, and UConn round out the projected #1 seeds. But if March has taught us anything, it’s that favorites get humbled, Cinderella stories emerge from nowhere, and the team that survives isn’t always the one that looked the best in February.

Sound familiar?

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How the Market Keeps Winning While the Headlines Keep Warning

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Dear Mr. Market:

You sure know how to keep us guessing.

“The bubble is about to pop”, right? After years of the constant drumbeat about an “inevitable” recession, the market is sitting near record highs again. But for those paying attention, the mood under the surface feels different. The leadership baton is being transferred …not toward the headline-making names that powered the last leg of the bull run, but toward the quiet, defensive corners of the market: utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. The kinds of stocks you buy when growth gets wobbly and investors start seeking shelter.

And yet, despite the sector rotation, the broader indexes remain firm. It’s almost as if you’re daring us to overthink it.

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RETIRE Right: Six Keys to a Stronger Financial Plan

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Dear Mr. Market:

This morning I had the pleasure of speaking at the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce breakfast at the Beach House … a room full of business owners, community leaders, and friends. For those who don’t know me, I’m Matt Pixa, founder of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, an independent fee-only wealth management firm. I’ve been honored to serve on the Chamber’s Board of Directors in the past, and was named 2021 Businessperson of the Year. While my schedule doesn’t allow me to attend as often as I’d like, it’s always a privilege to come back, reconnect, and hopefully provide a few takeaways that help people make smarter financial decisions.

Instead of giving a 15-minute “commercial” about my firm, I wanted to do something more interactive. So I asked everyone to take one of my business cards, flip it over, and write down the word RETIRE. Each letter became a conversation point for one of the six key areas of financial planning every person should be thinking about — no matter their age or stage of life.

These are the pillars that determine whether your financial plan can withstand market volatility, economic uncertainty, and life’s inevitable curveballs. If you missed the breakfast, here’s a recap of the discussion (and yes, you can watch the full 18-minute video below).

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From Big Wheels to Ford Escapes: A Father’s Car Payment Hack That Pays for Life

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Dear Mr. Market:

Isabel and her "new" and full paid Ford Escape!

I usually write to you…this fictitious embodiment of economic mood swings and investor psychology, to share thoughts on the markets, interest rates, fiscal policy, or whatever headlines are currently flashing red or green.

But today’s note is personal.

It’s about a different kind of return… not just from stocks or bonds, but from a mindset shift that I believe can serve people for a lifetime. One that came full circle this past weekend when my daughter, Isabel, got engaged and drove off in her first “new” car (a gently used 2024 Ford Escape). As a newly minted TCU graduate about to begin work as a NICU nurse in Fort Worth, Texas, she’s stepping into adulthood with independence, purpose… and a financial hack I hope will serve her for decades to come.

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

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Dear Mr. Market:

This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opportunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.  We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others. 

Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about. While NCAA teams battle for supremacy on the court, our annual March Madness Investing Bracket pits stocks and ETFs against each other to determine the investment themes we think are likely to outperform the remainder of the year. The competition spans four “regions”: Large Cap, Small & Mid Cap, International, and Bonds & Alternatives.

Who will be this year’s champion? Let’s break it down (click here to see the full bracket).

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2024

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Dear Mr. Market:

If your alma mater or favorite college team did not make the tournament on Selection Sunday, we’ve got another option for you!

Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together.

My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.  We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others. 

Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about in the year ahead.

Click here or below to see or enlarge the entire bracket for 2024. 

Our Final Four Investing Bracket slots 48 positions against each other and we mainly want to show why we see one investment doing better than another over the course of the next year. One caveat to keep in mind is that while there are 48 total investments within our bracket, it does not mean we like them all; some are there for illustrative purposes or to discuss a certain theme playing out in the stock market. Lastly, the way these are initially “seeded” does not reflect our current confidence in them. For example, a #1 seeded investment could lose right out of the gate just as a #12 could potentially win it all. In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year.

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RIP Charlie Munger : Farewell to an Icon of Investing

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Dear Mr. Market:

In the world of finance and investing, the passing of a visionary figure leaves an indelible mark on the landscape they helped shape. Today, we bid farewell to an icon, a man whose wisdom and wit transcended the realms of business and life itself. Charlie Munger, the renowned investor, philanthropist, right hand man of Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, passed away today, but his legacy endures through the profound insights he shared with the world.

Charlie Munger was a man who not only navigated the complexities of the financial world but also imparted invaluable lessons on success, rationality, and the pursuit of knowledge. Join us as we explore the essence of Charlie Munger’s wisdom through ten of our favorite quotes he shared over his 99 years of life:

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100 Reasons Why Your Financial Advisor Should Not Use Mutual Funds

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Dear Mr. Market:

The stock market is made up of thousands of choices and one easy way to gain exposure to it is via mutual funds. While we don’t want to broad brush the topic, we’re going to get right into it and explain 100 reasons why you or your financial advisor should not be using mutual funds versus ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds).

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