Where is the Recession?

Dear Mr. Market:Recession

Chalk it up to the “dog days of summer” but we haven’t written a letter to you in a while. Perhaps this is in part to the wild ride you’ve sent investors on since the whipsaw action and insane volatility we saw this past December. For those of us with short-term memory issues, the year ended in brutal fashion with the worst December in 80 years. If you sold out of your investments, threw in the towel and fell prey to your emotions, you then missed the best January the stock market has seen in 80 years. 

If you still haven’t paid much attention then perhaps the opening of this past week also hasn’t phased you…or should it?! Continue reading

March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2019

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Dear Mr. Market:

Has your alma mater or favorite team already been bounced from the NCAA basketball tournament? My Portfolio Guide can’t change that fact but we can offer you a fresh chance with our annual spin on March Madness. For the ninth year in a row we are rolling out our unique way to share investment themes and overall thoughts on the stock market.

We’re proud to say that My Portfolio Guide was the first financial advisory firm to publish a March Madness investing tournament where we share our picks and match them up against each other! We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

Click here to see Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2019

 

Large Cap

The most boilerplate of portfolios has won out by riding the safe bet over the past few years. This is akin to the March Madness office pool where your coworker, who knows nothing about sports and couldn’t differentiate between a basketball and a football, wins the whole pool of money by simply picking the highest seed in each bracket. What we mean by this with regards to investment asset classes is that since 2013 the Large Cap asset class has been the easy money pick. If you had a decently diversified portfolio (which by design should include exposure to International and Emerging Markets), you lost to the boilerplate and simpleton portfolio that is mainly weighted towards Large Cap. Continue reading

Protecting Your Fiefdom: Issues for First Time Landlords to Consider

Dear Mr. Market:th-22

Over the past couple of months we’ve had all eyes on you and to state the obvious it’s been a wild ride!  With all the recent volatility, the risks (and rewards) of the stock market were on clear display but today we switch gears to a different asset class and share some insight from our friend and guest author, Mr. Brian Chou, Esq.

Owning investment real estate can be a very rewarding and profitable experience, but it can also be a huge headache and a drain on resources. I remember when I purchased my first investment property several years ago, my head was filled with conflicting images of myself sunbathing on my private island and lying penniless in a gutter.  The possibilities and the liabilities seemed endless. Continue reading

What to do if the Stock Market Correction turns into a Bear Market?

Dear Mr. Market:

We typically write you letters about your volatile actions and the erratic behavior you bestow upon us as investors. Many of our letters also try to put certain economic events into perspective so that people don’t let your wild stock market swings force them into making bad decisions. All that said, it’s come to our attention that we can finally roll out the answer to a question that is not always obvious:

What should an investor do if a standard stock market correction turns into a bear market? shutterstock_262478570

First off, let’s revisit the basic definition of a correction versus an official bear market. Click here for an article we wrote during the last correction in February, which incidentally at the time felt like the end of the bull market had finally come. Although the market sold off almost -10% in a short span, it clearly came back to reach record highs until October came around.

So…can we now apply the four most dangerous words in investing? Continue reading

Top 3 “Less is More” Hurricane Florence Stocks

Dear Mr. Market:Ambulance-Chasers

We don’t make it a regular practice to be ambulance chasers every time there is a tragedy or natural disaster. That being said, almost every major event (whether it’s considered good or bad) can create an opportunity for your investment portfolio.

Conversely, the old adage of “less is more”, could certainly apply here. We’re not simpletons just for the sake of it but in general the ‘less is more’ approach can greatly benefit your finances. Think about it…and if you haven’t already, we’ll spell out several major ways that having less of something will benefit your wallet: Continue reading

May Gray turns into June Gloom

 

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-3

We have discussed many times how emotionally driven you are. On some days you tempt us with your record setting high wire acts and on others we have our lips virtually wrapped around the barrel of a gun in desperation; the stock market is a wicked playground.

We don’t believe that computers or sophisticated investment algorithms can completely mitigate the perils of the stock market or protect everyone from getting out of their own way, but it can at least be used as a starting point. My Portfolio Guide relies on some very unique tools that assess the stock market each month with a fresh set of eyes. While our method of “reading the tea leaves” is not necessarily a crystal ball, it’s definitely not what most investment advisors use….which is the rear view mirror. Sadly enough, many investment advisors are just like you…they’re human and they chase recent returns and mistakenly look back in history as to what has done well. While this method of analysis is the easiest to sell clients (and themselves) it’s not as effective as taking a completely fresh look at what is happening right now and how that is statistically likely to play out in the near-term. Continue reading

March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2018

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-2

What’s more exciting to watch: Duke versus North Carolina or Apple versus Amazon? If you’re reading this you know by now that it’s not a trick question but rather our annual opportunity to have some fun spinning the NCAA college basketball tournament into a platform to share our favorite investment themes.

My Portfolio Guide was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing tournament where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

This is the eighth year we’ve done this and it’s become one of the most popular articles on the entire internet!

Click the following link to see the entire bracket for 2018:

Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2018 

 

Large Cap

Many people now have the rearview mirror or armchair quarterback mentality right now. If you’re to be honest with yourself there are very few folks we met at this point last year that said without question that the stock market would soar to record highs. As a matter of fact, it was quite the opposite. Think back to the start of 2017 as most of us were still digesting the fact that Trump won the election. Most pundits felt that the “Trump bump” would be short lived and that the one thing the stock market doesn’t like is uncertainty …and we had plenty of it!

All that being said, we couldn’t have been more clear that if you kept your politics out of it you could have had a nice year! The easy trade was betting on America and the Large Cap asset class turned in a fine year. Guess what? We still think there is room to run here and the recent correction we experienced is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Key Match-up:

#2 US Steel (X) vs. #3 Reliance Steel (RS)

Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve heard that President Trump wants to reset the playing field on trade imbalances. Continue reading