Investing & Diversification: When Less is More

Dear Mr. Market: download

In many of our letters to you we discuss the ups and downs of the stock market. In doing so, we often times will share basic knowledge and investing reminders to our readers to help guide them. Without question, even a rookie investor will have learned the simple advice of diversifying their portfolio. “Do not put all your eggs in one basket!”

While that “advice” is intuitive and seems to make sense, it’s mainly regurgitated by every financial advisor because of one alarming reason. Yes, on one hand it’s with the intent of managing risk but part of the dark reality is because most people (pros included) don’t know what they’re doing. This last sentence may sound harsh but our job is to be candid and also share ideas and truths that you may need to know yet not always hear elsewhere.

If you stop reading this article right now do yourself a favor and at least spend seven minutes when you have more time. The seven minutes we want you to spend are watching the following clip of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Click here to view it and learn their basic belief that most investors over diversify and are simply “protecting themselves from ignorance”. Continue reading

Manic Market

Dear Mr. Market:51Xur1KZWKL

For some of our newer readers it might serve us well to remind everyone of who you are and what this “Mr. Market” character is all about. If you haven’t read Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, you need to. Even though it was written in 1949, much of what Graham wrote is still applicable today and it’s simply one of the best books on the stock market ever written. Warren Buffett himself loves the book and says that it changed his life. Here’s a summary from Buffett and his description of our very own “Mr. Market”: Continue reading

Best Oil Stocks after the Coronavirus & Stock Market Crash

Dear Mr. Market:Oil Stocks

We won’t rehash what’s happened to the stock market due to the global pandemic of COVID-19. Like many right now, it’s been overwhelming and just hearing the word “Coronavirus” with constant updates has become all-consuming in everything we do. That said, there will of course be areas of the stock market that continue to get punished but others that provide opportunity once we get through this.

We believe the broad market will recover to the full levels we recently saw within the next three years. Some economic sectors, however, will struggle more than others as have a few additional conflicts to resolve. One such sector is oil and with the Saudi Arabia and Russian trade spat we saw U.S. oil prices drop -34% in one night! Which stocks will survive and which have the best chance to recover?

Continue reading

Is there any Good News on COVID-19?

Dear Mr. Market:download

We obviously live in a crazy world with a news cycle that is non-stop. We read this a few years ago but for every piece of “good news” there are 17 being reported of bad news. This is not strictly related to Coronavirus / COVID-19, but with news in general.

Earlier this week a client of ours sent us some articles and pieces of good news with verifiable links to support the stories we perhaps don’t hear enough about.

Finally some better news with documentation…

There is light at the end of the tunnel and here is some news worth taking a peak at: Continue reading

The Best Worst Days Ever

Dear Mr. Market:IMG_1253

Behind the curtain of this investment blog and our series of letters to a fictional market character (Mr. Market)…there are actual human beings. We’re certainly not hiding behind a fluffy topic, but on days like today we want to share how life can parallel with things like the stock market; it can also really put things in perspective as we look back at where we were at certain points in life. Additionally, it sometimes helps people know that unlike many other articles and financial advisors you’ll find on the internet, My Portfolio Guide doesn’t cut and paste regurgitated garbage or use a ghost writer to relay our message.

Today is March 13th…Friday the 13th! Today it’s also me, Matthew Pixa, who is writing to you and letting you know that it’s the day my daughter Isabel turns 18. Perhaps we’ll do more of these personal articles but it won’t hurt our feelings if you don’t want to read about my baby girl’s birthday when the stock market is down -25%. You be the judge, but please read on and see where I’m going with this. Continue reading

Coronavirus and the Stock Market sell-off

Dear Mr. Market:https___blogs-images.forbes.com_joeljohnson_files_2018_04_market-correction-used-for-forbes-1200x720

It’s without question that the recent headlines surrounding the coronavirus have escalated and are rattling everyone’s nerves. The markets have already given back all the early gains of this young year. With natural concern certain questions arise: (1) will this get worse? (2) will it lead to a bear market? , and (3) what should one do right now?

With some of these questions we want to share the viewpoint from our favorite economist, Mr. Brian Wesbury from First Trust.

Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years.  These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.

Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient!  Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way.  Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%.  During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs. Continue reading

Black Monday Revisited?

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown

When we reminisce and think of some of your worst days it would be natural to assume it was sometime during the Great Depression. Believe it or not the worst drop in stock market history (at least percentage wise) was not in 1929 but rather on October 19, 1987.

Click here to see what happened on that day, which is now known as Black Monday.

There were a number of issues underneath the surface that led to that bloodbath of a day but what amplified things was the early practice of program trading. Computers were programmed to execute trades after being triggered by certain conditions and this literally made human traders almost worthless as automation took over!

Two years ago, on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, we wrote an article and calculated what a drop would be in today’s stock market. Click here to check it out. On that day it would have been equivalent to about a -5,094 points drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If it happened this coming Monday…we would see the Dow Jones go from about 26,965 to 21,033 for a drop of -5,932 points.

Are you ready and what would you do? How is your current portfolio positioned in the event of something even half of that type of drop? We’re not trying to be “doom and gloom” financial advisors but we’re also not so oblivious or positive that we’re “running East in search of a sunset”.

All this being said, get your plan in place now and prepare yourself for such an event. Even if you just let your mind get in front of it and don’t make any portfolio changes, your emotions will at least be more in check. History and reality tells us, however, that most people will read this and not prepare any differently.

PS- Don’t be “most people”!

 

Where is the Recession?

Dear Mr. Market:Recession

Chalk it up to the “dog days of summer” but we haven’t written a letter to you in a while. Perhaps this is in part to the wild ride you’ve sent investors on since the whipsaw action and insane volatility we saw this past December. For those of us with short-term memory issues, the year ended in brutal fashion with the worst December in 80 years. If you sold out of your investments, threw in the towel and fell prey to your emotions, you then missed the best January the stock market has seen in 80 years. 

If you still haven’t paid much attention then perhaps the opening of this past week also hasn’t phased you…or should it?! Continue reading

March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2019

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Dear Mr. Market:

Has your alma mater or favorite team already been bounced from the NCAA basketball tournament? My Portfolio Guide can’t change that fact but we can offer you a fresh chance with our annual spin on March Madness. For the ninth year in a row we are rolling out our unique way to share investment themes and overall thoughts on the stock market.

We’re proud to say that My Portfolio Guide was the first financial advisory firm to publish a March Madness investing tournament where we share our picks and match them up against each other! We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

Click here to see Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2019

 

Large Cap

The most boilerplate of portfolios has won out by riding the safe bet over the past few years. This is akin to the March Madness office pool where your coworker, who knows nothing about sports and couldn’t differentiate between a basketball and a football, wins the whole pool of money by simply picking the highest seed in each bracket. What we mean by this with regards to investment asset classes is that since 2013 the Large Cap asset class has been the easy money pick. If you had a decently diversified portfolio (which by design should include exposure to International and Emerging Markets), you lost to the boilerplate and simpleton portfolio that is mainly weighted towards Large Cap. Continue reading

Protecting Your Fiefdom: Issues for First Time Landlords to Consider

Dear Mr. Market:th-22

Over the past couple of months we’ve had all eyes on you and to state the obvious it’s been a wild ride!  With all the recent volatility, the risks (and rewards) of the stock market were on clear display but today we switch gears to a different asset class and share some insight from our friend and guest author, Mr. Brian Chou, Esq.

Owning investment real estate can be a very rewarding and profitable experience, but it can also be a huge headache and a drain on resources. I remember when I purchased my first investment property several years ago, my head was filled with conflicting images of myself sunbathing on my private island and lying penniless in a gutter.  The possibilities and the liabilities seemed endless. Continue reading