The stock market has provided many sayings and memorable catchphrases that people tend to regurgitate ; some have merit and some are just garbage.
If you’re a regular reader of Dear Mr. Market, or a client of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, you’ll know that our all-time favorite is “The four most dangerous words in investing are …This time it’s different” -Sir John Templeton. Here are some other all-time adages that you’ve undoubtedly heard:
“Buy low sell high” Uh…yeah, but easier said than done.
“The trend is your friend” Sure….until it’s not!
“If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks” -John Bogle
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” -John Maynard Keynes
So…what does “buy the rumor and sell the news” mean? You probably know that the stock market is full of speculation, great stories, and chock-full of hidden nuggets as well as potential land mines. Even if you’re not an experienced investor or trader, at some point you’ll figure out that by the time your neighbor (you know the guy who never loses and is always up) tells you about a stock tip…the ink on the newspaper is already dry and that idea is likely stale.
We have commented many times on how people have short memories. In the case of recent stock market behavior, however, there is no way one could forget what a ride we’ve all been on. Our job today is not to draw attention to the very obvious past but to one area of the market that is not always directly connected to stocks or bonds.
Do you have gold in your portfolio and if so, should you buy more, hold on to what you have, or dump it? Continue reading →
Many of our “letters” to you are with a cautionary approach so that readers of this blog fully understand the risks and rewards of engaging with you. With your erratic personality perhaps the last thing you need is a drug to add to your volatile ways. That said, we also attempt to sprinkle in some humor and puns to get our point across…even if you’re at an all-time high (first pun in case you’re not paying attention!).
Whether you are a proponent of legalizing marijuana or not there is no denying that the cannabis industry is real and here to stay. Would it surprise you to learn that cannabis is the United States’ second largest cash crop? Believe it or not it is the second most valuable industry next to corn and is worth over $40 billion! Several reports earlier this year also estimate that legal cannabis sales could grow by at least 30% in 2018.
The marijuana industry is predicted to grow like a weed (second pun). All kidding aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects over 250,000 new jobs in this industry by 2020 which is far more than those expected from manufacturing! By 2024 the BLS actually forecasts manufacturing jobs to decline by 814,000. Ignoring the potential growth in this industry or that it has fast become a major economic driver and job-creation force in the U.S. economy is a mistake.
Public opinion is still divided (not a surprise nowadays…) but it’s rapidly changing. A poll conducted by CBS News in July of 1979 revealed that only 27% of those surveyed thought marijuana should be legal; that number by mid 2017 is now at 61%. Even with this momentum there still remains some obvious hurdles: (1) Marijuana is still illegal at the Federal level and (2) Congress has plenty to focus on right now with healthcare and tax reform so legalization is a lower priority for now.
So…how do you play this opportunity, or should you???
If you’re a true investor as opposed to a speculator we’ll begin by letting you know there are major risks in this budding sector. (please tell us you caught that pun?!) Continue reading →
Normally we write you a series of letters about the stock market or the economy. As we wrap up 2016, however, we decided to share an article that was recently published on Seeking Alpha. The proverbial ‘Santa Claus rally’ seems to perhaps have taken place before Christmas this year but what opportunities might there be going into 2017?
This interview reviews questions around a stock we’re interested in adding to some portfolios; Dean Foods (DF). Enjoy!
Despite trading at 52-week highs (and ~30% gain over the last three months), DF is still undervalued relative to peers.
As the clear market leader in fluid dairy, DF enjoys significant economies of scale – a critical advantage in a commodity-related business.
“Skating to wear the puck is going” with leading position in healthy dairy products such as TruMoo.
Friendly’s ice cream acquisition was immediately accretive, highly complementary, and further cemented its growing position in branded ice cream.
Takeover rumors that surfaced in October provide a floor for the stock.
Every investor is looking for the next opportunity that looks like a ‘sure thing’. Throughout 2014 we’ve seen a plethora of IPO’s hit the market with the majority of them being well received. Currently there is a giant lurking out there and the markets have been licking their chops waiting to get a piece of it. The stock is a behemoth based in China…Alibaba (anticipated to be listed as BABA).
Wall Street is expecting the IPO to hit the market sometime after the Labor Day holiday and this could certainly be an early Christmas present for the markets if it lives up to the anticipation. We have not seen hype like this surrounding a potential IPO since the dot-com era of the late 1990’s. Before you rush out in an attempt to participate in the IPO or buy through the open market, lets take a look at Alibaba to see if it warrants a position in your portfolio….
It is challenging for the average U.S. investor to understand how large and diversified Alibaba is. Essentially Alibaba is: Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Cloud Services and much more wrapped up in one company. It has the fastest growing online commerce market in the world, last year it had transactions that totaled just under $250 billion! That is more than eBay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN) combined. To truly put the size of Alibaba in perspective let’s break down its largest components: Continue reading →
Have you ever woken up long before your alarm clock was set to go off? Put yourself in that state of mind for a minute. You see the alarm clock, take a pleasant mental check that you still have some time to sleep and you pleasantly roll over and shut your eyes; it’s almost like you just were rewarded free time which is the one thing we can never get back!
CLANK, BANG, SCREECH, HONK!?!?! What on earth?? Something that is NOT your alarm clock rattles you awake and spoils this momentary feeling of pure relaxation.
That’s basically what Mr. Market did to everyone in July. The last day of July brought people a wicked reminder of what the market can do if you let it put you to sleep. We haven’t seen a sharp drop like this in a few years and it certainly got your attention, didn’t it?
We actually saw a rather sharp selloff in some of the technology and momentum stocks in April of this year but this time it is broad based and appears to be signaling something more. Before we talk further about the markets and how they may have finally awoken some of you, let’s refresh our often short-term memories on why we run this monthly series of articles.
Click here to revisit the first edition of the MPG Core Tactical 60/40 Portfolio.
Here’s the current summary of the MPG Core Tactical 60/40 portfolio mix, which is updated as of this writing (August 4, 2014).
One thing we try to avoid when it comes to managing money is to “pat yourself on the back without breaking your arm”. We did very little this month aside from clearly communicate that we thought not only was the stock market ready to correct but we also laid out what we planned to do about it. Read and click here to see exactly what we said. The moves we made in advance of the worst down day of the year were as follows: Continue reading →
Throughout 2014 consumers have proven that they can be extremely fickle, looking for superior products at the best possible price. They have been very selective how they spend their hard-earned money forcing companies to be both creative and resourceful. When looking at consumer discretionary companies returns have been all over the board, separating the contenders from the pretenders. For a company to be successful they must provide a superior product with quality service at a competitive price. When it comes to the sporting goods/apparel industry there is a relatively young company that has emerged as a leader and is playing ball with the big boys.
Under Armour (UA) has burst onto the sports/fitness industry scene over the last decade. With bold marketing and innovative products they have become a force and have caught investors attention. UA is up over 34% YTD and has left many of its competitors in the dust: Nike (NKE, YTD =-1.87%), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU, YTD = -33%), Adidas (ADDYY, YTD = -24%) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM, YTD = +3%). With impressive numbers like this investors are forced to ask themselves if the stock still has positive upside or if it is too late to take a position? Continue reading →
Technology is a bit like true love. You have to believe in it but it can also bite you in the ass.
Read through this article and you’ll see how this relates to a particular investment!
The technology Industry can be a challenging sector for investors. Perhaps the best way to describe it is with a popular saying … “the one constant is change itself.” Plenty of analysts and investment firms scour through stock ticker symbols looking for the next Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) or Google (GOOG).
We couldn’t help but notice the Motley Fool’s recent …shall we say, “stock pitch” about a company that could be your next homerun! If you’re a die-hard Apple fan, wouldn’t you like to know who their next HUGE inside supplier is? Rewind the clock and take for example the desktop computer or the cell phone you have within inches of your hand right now…
Put Apple, Sony or IBM on the shelf for a minute and think about investing in the next company that has a stake in every sale regardless of the brand you choose? In other words, buy the “chip” or technology that’s inside of each device instead of trying to figure out which phone or computer manufacturer is going to win the battle. Continue reading →
March has turned in another month of stubborn market defiance as the investment world is waiting for a correction yet it never seems to come or fully develop! It’s without question that many of the warning signs continue to lurk below the surface but the S&P 500 has still managed to tack on about another +1%. Year to date we’re just about 1% of where we started 2014 but it sure feels uncomfortable for many.
If this is your first time reading about our MPG Core Tactical Portfolio please refer back to our first post. (click here) In short you will see what adjustments we make throughout the year on a $1 million dollar portfolio and how that performs relative to a portfolio that is rebalanced once per month with an allocation of 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds. Continue reading →
Just about anyone who has invested in Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Nasdaq: CLNE), has traveled a rough road thus far. Clean Energy has serious potential but its great story hasn’t materialized at all. The stock has done absolutely nothing for shareholders and if you’re the type of investor that screens for strong fundamentals it probably hasn’t hit your radar; at least not yet…
What do United Parcel Service (UPS), Frito-Lay/Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), Ryder (R), and Lowe’s (LOW) all have in common? Each of these companies, and more and more of corporate America, is pouring money into the natural gas industry. Companies like these all see the writing on the wall with regard to energy trends and they are expanding their natural gas fleets.
The U.S. heavy-duty trucking market is beginning to embrace the economic and environmental benefits of natural gas fueled trucks. There are over 8 million heavy-duty trucks in the U.S. consuming about 20,000 gallons of fuel per year. The operating cost savings that operators will benefit from by converting from gasoline and diesel to natural gas along with movements towards clean air regulations bode extremely well for companies like CLNE.
Clean Energy is headquartered in Newport Beach, CA and has a market capitalization of almost $1.1 billion. CLNE supplies compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles; and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel for medium and heavy-duty vehicles. They are the largest provider of natural gas fuel for transportation in North America. CLNE fuels over 30,000 vehicles per year at over 500 fueling stations throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company has created and continues to develop a network of fueling stations with what they call “America’s Natural Gas Highway”. This network connects major truck corridors across the country for coast-to-coast and border-to-border natural gas fueling. Continue reading →