10 Rules on Stock Picking

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Dear Mr. Market:

We’ve written countless letters to you on the ups and downs of the stock market. This time, however, we’d like to share some ‘rules of the road’ and a guideline on how to pick stocks regardless of the environment you’re presenting us.

Click here to read the latest white paper written by My Portfolio Guide, LLC.

Cheers!

PS- If you have questions or would like more information on this white paper or others…please send us a note below:

Cheers to a stock that beats the market and its peers!

Dear Mr. Market:

We find ourselves back in earnings season, which always brings several surprises with well-known stocks…both positive and negative. Analysts and the media will tempt investors to chase returns as quarterly earnings are dissected and trading ‘advice’ is thrown around like a hot dog vendor working the crowd at a baseball game.

Our world is currently swimming in uncertainty which pushes investors to hunt for stability and returns that will enable them to reach their financial goals. Imagine if there was a stock that has posted impressive returns in both up and down markets and all the while you most likely have been supporting it yourself without even realizing it!

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is an international beverage producer and marketer with operations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and Italy. They own iconic brands like: Robert Mondavi, Svedka Vodka, Ballast Point, Corona and Modelo to name just a few. In total they currently have over 100 brands in their portfolio with sales in 100 countries, 40 facilities and approximately 9,000 employees. In 2015 Constellation was one of the top performing stocks in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index. Continue reading

Brexit too shall pass…

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Dear Mr. Market:

You hate uncertainty; that fact has been established from the day you began trading. If the rest of the investing public hasn’t heard about “Brexit” vs “Bremain”…it’s not necessarily a bad thing. There is always something to worry about and now with a vote by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union the potential implications and chants of uncertainty will continue to create worry and panic.

Ironically enough, even amidst all the doom and gloom, the world is not that much different than before the vote. Although the U.K. surprised many with its vote to leave the EU, this decision and the potential fallout will take a couple of years to fully play itself out. Even though there will clearly be political uncertainty and initial volatility (which is natural)…the UK will have two years to negotiate the terms of its exit and establish a new relationship with the EU. Although there won’t be a shortage of opinions, this doesn’t imply an automatic death to the stock market!

It’s times like these that are EXACTLY why people overreact and make critical mistakes. Once people get over their initial reaction (shock, surprise, fear etc) the markets will see relief in knowing there is a result and a definitive decision. In other words…there will be some basic element of certainty and that allows markets to naturally correct and go back to moving based on actual fundamentals as opposed to speculative forces or fear.

What should one do in the near-term and will this lead to something worse? Continue reading

Who does Mr. Market vote for…Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

Dear Mr. Market:

160323171742-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-investors-780x439How dare we put you on the spot like this?!? What an awful question! How will you (the stock market) react if Trump wins or if Hillary wins? By the way…as an aside….a great client of ours recently asked why everyone refers to Trump by his last name and Hillary by her first name. Why is that?

Depending on which side you’re on, this question may initially seem like simple semantics but it’s not. Are you “presidential” if you roll with a campaign based on your first name? Do you “feel the Bern” or did you “Trust in Ted”? Whether you’re a proponent of Hillary for President or Hillary for prison…it’s still Hillary. Where are we at America?

At My Portfolio Guide, the one thing we typically don’t shy away from is having a clear opinion. There are some great firms out there that simply can’t give you one! You’ll hear what you want to hear. They fear losing your “vote” or ruffling feathers. Yes…we understand that balance too, but as much as our job is about deciphering news versus noise…it does become important to take a stance. Continue reading

Financial legislation that finally benefits YOU!

DOL3Dear Mr. Market:

Recently the Department of Labor announced new legislation that will have a profound impact on the financial services industry. What is refreshing is that the focus is on the individual investor, protecting their retirement accounts from predatory practices that have unfortunately become the norm on Wall Street. The new regulations will help protect individuals, and in many cases, open their eyes to what has been unfortunately taking place with their accounts for years.

While the document that addresses the new guidelines is 1,023 pages long, what it addresses at its core is that financial advisors must act as a fiduciary when working with qualified accounts. It is estimated that investors will save $17 billion a year after exorbitant fees and charges are eliminated! It has been well documented that we have a ‘retirement crisis’ as the average U.S. consumer is not saving enough for their retirement. Hopefully the focus and legislation we’re starting to see will give people more confidence to save and invest.

The legislation focuses on advisors that offer advice on qualified accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s, Simple and SEP IRAs) and requires that they must act as a fiduciary. This means that advisors must do what is in the client’s best interest and put them ahead of their own. Sounds like common sense, right? What might shock many investors is that the ‘trusted’ advisor they have worked with for years might be anything but a fiduciary, many of them viewing their client’s assets as a revenue-generating machine lining their own pockets and financing their extravagant lifestyles.

With the finalization of this rule, we are putting in place a fundamental

protection into the American retirement landscape. A consumer’s

best interest must now come before an advisor’s financial interest.

This is a huge win for the middle class.”

Tom Perez, Labor Secretary

Continue reading

Q1 is in the books – how does the rest of 2016 look?

Dear Mr. Market:

2016 #3The first quarter is in the rear view mirror and what a wild ride it was! The stock market started the year with the worst first 10 days in history and we finally experienced a ‘textbook correction’ of over 10%. Perhaps the most shocking part is when it was all said and done, Mr. Market rallied in March to finish out Q1 just above break-even. Volatility like this is typically played out over a 12-month or longer cycle, not in one quarter.

The question that investors are currently asking is … how does the rest of 2016 play out? Turn on your television or open any printed material and you will quickly be overwhelmed with the various talking points. Just look at a few of the headlines that have popped up last week:

  • Housing starts declined -8.8% in March.
  • Auto sales fell at a -14.6% annual rate in Q1.
  • Business investments in equipment fell -8% the first three months of this year.
  • Large declines in military spending by the government in Q1 will add 0.1% percentage points to the real GDP.
  • Industrial production dropped -0.6% in March coming in below consensus of 0.1%.
  • Production of high-tech equipment increased +0.5% in March, up +2.1% versus a year ago.

These are real economic data points that have driven financial headlines over the last few weeks. In our opinion here’s what they mean (or don’t) and how we think the rest of 2016 will play out in plain English: Continue reading

Emerging Markets: Down but not out!

Emerging Mkts 2Dear Mr. Market:

We write letters to you during good times and bad. That’s the beauty of the stock market and all the drama you bring with it! Without a doubt there will always be something to worry or cheer about! Perhaps no asset class personifies this struggle better than Emerging Markets.

We’ve written before about the appeal (and risk) that Emerging Markets brings to investors. Right now, in our opinion, there is a potential “changing of the guard” and a shift in asset class leadership. Although our friend Warren Buffett often gets credit for the following famous quote, it was actually originally from the 18th century British Nobleman, Baron Rothschild:

“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”

Emerging markets have been absolutely hammered the past few years. As you know, the big headlines that drove markets in 2015 was the plunge in oil prices, an incredibly strong U.S. dollar, and massive concerns about China (the world’s second largest economy, albeit an Emerging Market). It’s easy for investors to get scared out of their minds with an asset class that is historically more volatile than most; that’s probably why most investors are underexposed to Emerging Markets. Continue reading