March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2026

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Dear Mr. Market:

It’s that time of year again. The nets are being cut down, the office bracket pools are being filled out, and somewhere right now a 12-seed is about to ruin someone’s perfect bracket. Welcome to March Madness…the one time of year when a school nobody has heard of can knock off a powerhouse, and when the chalk favorites don’t always survive the first weekend.

We’ve been publishing our annual March Madness Investing Bracket longer than anyone else on Wall Street, and each year it gives us the opportunity to do something most investment firms won’t: put our themes, our convictions, and our best ideas out in public, bracket them against each other, and let the logic play out. Not every pick wins. Not every #1 seed survives. That’s kind of the point.

This year’s tournament feels particularly loaded. Duke and the Boozer twins are the consensus favorite to cut down the nets…a Blue Blood program with generational talent that almost no one is betting against. Michigan, Arizona, and UConn round out the projected #1 seeds. But if March has taught us anything, it’s that favorites get humbled, Cinderella stories emerge from nowhere, and the team that survives isn’t always the one that looked the best in February.

Sound familiar?

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The Genius, The Bear, and the Broken Clock

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Dear Mr. Market:

You’ve been around long enough to know that the smartest people in the room are not always the most profitable ones. Case in point: Michael Burry just published what may be the most meticulously researched bearish manifesto since… well, since his last one.

Let’s give credit where it’s due. The man called the 2008 housing collapse with surgical precision, bet his career and his investors’ capital on it, and was right while everyone, including his own clients, thought he’d lost his mind. That’s not luck. That’s genius. If you haven’t seen The Big Short, go watch it. Then come back.

But here’s the thing about genius: it doesn’t come with an expiration date stamped on the worry.

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21 Days In: The Financial Decisions Worth Revisiting This Year

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Dear Mr. Market:

They say it takes 21 days to make or break a habit.

They also say that by mid-January, most New Year’s resolutions have already been abandoned. Gym attendance drops. Diets loosen. Optimism fades just a bit.

Markets, of course, are indifferent to all of this.

But the timing is still useful. Three weeks into the year is often when clarity replaces motivation. And in wealth management, clarity tends to matter far more.

Rather than broad resolutions or generic financial advice, this is a short list of specific things worth revisiting this year, depending on where you are financially. Not because January demands it, but because these are the kinds of decisions that quietly compound over time.

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How the Market Keeps Winning While the Headlines Keep Warning

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Dear Mr. Market:

You sure know how to keep us guessing.

“The bubble is about to pop”, right? After years of the constant drumbeat about an “inevitable” recession, the market is sitting near record highs again. But for those paying attention, the mood under the surface feels different. The leadership baton is being transferred …not toward the headline-making names that powered the last leg of the bull run, but toward the quiet, defensive corners of the market: utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. The kinds of stocks you buy when growth gets wobbly and investors start seeking shelter.

And yet, despite the sector rotation, the broader indexes remain firm. It’s almost as if you’re daring us to overthink it.

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RETIRE Right: Six Keys to a Stronger Financial Plan

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Dear Mr. Market:

This morning I had the pleasure of speaking at the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce breakfast at the Beach House … a room full of business owners, community leaders, and friends. For those who don’t know me, I’m Matt Pixa, founder of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, an independent fee-only wealth management firm. I’ve been honored to serve on the Chamber’s Board of Directors in the past, and was named 2021 Businessperson of the Year. While my schedule doesn’t allow me to attend as often as I’d like, it’s always a privilege to come back, reconnect, and hopefully provide a few takeaways that help people make smarter financial decisions.

Instead of giving a 15-minute “commercial” about my firm, I wanted to do something more interactive. So I asked everyone to take one of my business cards, flip it over, and write down the word RETIRE. Each letter became a conversation point for one of the six key areas of financial planning every person should be thinking about — no matter their age or stage of life.

These are the pillars that determine whether your financial plan can withstand market volatility, economic uncertainty, and life’s inevitable curveballs. If you missed the breakfast, here’s a recap of the discussion (and yes, you can watch the full 18-minute video below).

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From Big Wheels to Ford Escapes: A Father’s Car Payment Hack That Pays for Life

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Dear Mr. Market:

Isabel and her "new" and full paid Ford Escape!

I usually write to you…this fictitious embodiment of economic mood swings and investor psychology, to share thoughts on the markets, interest rates, fiscal policy, or whatever headlines are currently flashing red or green.

But today’s note is personal.

It’s about a different kind of return… not just from stocks or bonds, but from a mindset shift that I believe can serve people for a lifetime. One that came full circle this past weekend when my daughter, Isabel, got engaged and drove off in her first “new” car (a gently used 2024 Ford Escape). As a newly minted TCU graduate about to begin work as a NICU nurse in Fort Worth, Texas, she’s stepping into adulthood with independence, purpose… and a financial hack I hope will serve her for decades to come.

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The Broken Clock Investor: Always Warning, Rarely Winning

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Dear Mr. Market:

One of our favorite recurring themes here at Dear Mr. Market is what we like to call the “Broken Clock Club” — the group of perma-bears, doomcasters, and media pundits who reliably forecast financial catastrophe year after year. Like a broken clock, they’re eventually right… but for all the wrong reasons and far too late to be of any use to investors.

Let’s rewind to December 2023. Headlines were ablaze with bold predictions of economic calamity. Chief among them was the infamous economist Harry Dent, who warned of a 1929-style market crash hitting in early 2024. (click here to review that article that grabbed a lot of nervous eyeballs back then). Dent’s call wasn’t exactly an outlier; it echoed a chorus of dire predictions centered on Fed policy, inflation hangovers, geopolitical instability, commercial real estate defaults, and consumer weakness.

Yet here we are, approaching mid-2025, with the S&P 500 not only above its December 2023 levels, but clawing its way back and approaching highs throughout the first half of this year. What gives?

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Tariffs Are the Headline—But These 3 China Risks Are the Real Market Threat

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Dear Mr. Market:

What If Tariffs Are Just the Beginning?

The tariff headlines are back, and as usual, they make for great cable news debates and political talking points. But beneath the surface, there are far more serious considerations. Recent commentary has raised three key concerns about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China—and none of them are as simple as price hikes at Walmart.

Let’s break them down:

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

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Dear Mr. Market:

This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opportunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.  We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others. 

Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about. While NCAA teams battle for supremacy on the court, our annual March Madness Investing Bracket pits stocks and ETFs against each other to determine the investment themes we think are likely to outperform the remainder of the year. The competition spans four “regions”: Large Cap, Small & Mid Cap, International, and Bonds & Alternatives.

Who will be this year’s champion? Let’s break it down (click here to see the full bracket).

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Inflation Myths, Market Realities, and the Tariff Scapegoat

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Dear Mr. Market:

Ah, tariffs. The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bob’s imported car parts now cost a fortune. But let’s set the record straight—tariffs are not always a pure cause of inflation. At least, not in the way most people think.

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