Panic is never a strategy…

Dear Mr. Market:5 years

Today marks the anniversary of the stock market bottom 11 years ago. How ironic is it that on March 9th 2009, when the market and everyone in finance was curled up in a fetal position, we now are witnessing a market drubbing like we haven’t seen in years on that same anniversary date? For those with short-term memory lapses, 11 years ago the Dow Jones went from 14,164 in October of 2007 down to 6,547 on March 9, 2009. The “Financial Crisis” of that period effectively saw a -53.77% decline in the stock market.  What has ensued since then happens to be the longest bull market run in history. Continue reading

Coronavirus and the Stock Market sell-off

Dear Mr. Market:https___blogs-images.forbes.com_joeljohnson_files_2018_04_market-correction-used-for-forbes-1200x720

It’s without question that the recent headlines surrounding the coronavirus have escalated and are rattling everyone’s nerves. The markets have already given back all the early gains of this young year. With natural concern certain questions arise: (1) will this get worse? (2) will it lead to a bear market? , and (3) what should one do right now?

With some of these questions we want to share the viewpoint from our favorite economist, Mr. Brian Wesbury from First Trust.

Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years.  These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.

Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient!  Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way.  Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%.  During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs. Continue reading

Keep Calm and Invest On

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-4

We always chide you for having such a volatile temper. Your unpredictability is both alluring yet often makes the most intelligent person seem like an imbecile. What’s your next move? Who will you reward in 2020 and who will you punish?

As an investor, it’s always hard when the market is volatile. Do what you must to relax – deep breathing, a nice long walk, maybe yoga. Try to ignore the talking heads on the financial news channels. You’ll get through this. Now is not the time for rash action based on emotion.

What’s that you say? You’re not worried? Hasn’t the market been up nicely for the last year?

Of course it has, and that soothed a lot of the fears stock investors had coming off a rough end to 2018. But it actually has been volatile. It’s just that upside volatility naturally feels a lot better than downside! However, both can lead to bad decision making.

Think about how you feel as an investor today, as compared to a year ago. Odds are that last year you were questioning having too much stock exposure, and now you may be wishing you had more. Both extremes can be dangerous. Imagine you gave into your fear during the late 2018 correction, and lightened up on stocks “just to wait for more clarity,” or something along those lines. The S&P 500 zoomed out of the gates in early 2019 and was up over 20% by the end of July! Then it finished up better than 30% for the full year. Giving in to fear and waiting for clarity would have kept you from participating in that upside.

Now imagine you were a disciplined investor, following an asset allocation plan for the long-run. Say your target is 70% stocks / 30% bonds, and you (or your advisor) rebalance toward that allocation at set intervals or deviations. After December 2018, you (or your advisor) would have taken money from bonds and added to stocks, since the 70/30 balance would have been out of whack. Yes, you would have added to stocks during a period of high uncertainty! In hindsight it would have looked like a great timing move, but in reality it would have been simple discipline.

Unknown-6That brings us to today. The market has been up and worries seem low. Likely your stock allocation has gotten out of whack again, but this time to the upside. What is the prudent investor to do? Again, ignore emotion and follow your plan. If this means selling stocks to rebalance, so be it. Maybe your gut says, “let the winners keep running.” You could do that, but ask yourself how good your gut has been at timing the market in the past.

From an investor psychology standpoint, staying disciplined when things feel comfortable can be a good exercise for when the market inevitably goes a little haywire. Warren Buffett is credited with saying, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” Good advice…but if you focus more on discipline than market timing, your decision-making will not be driven by either extreme.

Continue reading

December to Remember

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-4

Periodically we write you “letters” about a whole host of topics. Last December we wrote one about Santa delivering us a massive lump of coal instead of what historically can be a friendly month with regards to stock market returns.

When you hear a “December to remember” what do you think of? For many it may be a cheesy commercial from Lexus; for us it’s a reminder that we’re still breathing after the worst December the stock market we’ve seen in over 80 years! As we’ve stated many times, however, people tend to have awfully short memories. It’s amazing how a strong January and a very decent year (at least in Large Cap stocks) has basically erased any notion that there could be trouble on the horizon. Seeing the market recover as sharply as it did last year was the worst thing that could happen for people.

Why? Continue reading

Don’t belittle your IRA Beneficiaries

Dear Mr. Market:

download“In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” – Ben Franklin

“When it comes to divide an estate, the politest men quarrel.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

As Mr. Franklin notes, none of us will live forever. And if you have ever been part of a contentious division of estate assets, you surely know Mr. Emerson’s quote to be true. You can’t avoid death, but with some careful planning on your retirement accounts, your heirs can avoid (needlessly large) taxes and the quarreling. The key is setting up beneficiaries, and setting them up correctly. Continue reading

Annuities aren’t the only thing Ken Fisher is concerned about…

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-1

If you follow financial news at all, you have likely been paying attention to the controversy surrounding Ken Fisher. Ken leads a firm with over $100 billion in assets under management, and he made some comments that did not go over well at a recent industry conference. Following that, the media dug up past comments of his from social media and other industry events. Institutional clients have so far pulled out over $3 billion invested with Fisher, and the company is understandably now in PR damage control mode.

Many are using this as an opportunity to bash him and his organization. Ken has rankled many in his industry, whether from his overwhelming marketing success or his “I hate annuities” stance, and it’s a convenient time to sling mud his way. Continue reading

Commission Free trades are now the norm!

Dear Mr. Market:

To say that the stock market offers a changing landscape is an understatement. It’s up, it’s down, it’s sideways but regardless there is always something new and now…there is something free; stock trading!download

Charles Schwab has truly been a pioneer as being a disruptor and innovator in the financial services world. Once mainly known as a discount brokerage firm for the do-it-yourself and self-directed investor, they created a deep menu of service offerings catering to high net-worth investors but always tried to stick to their roots to still make investing accessible to all. Just last month they shook up the industry once more with a huge announcement… Continue reading