Best Oil Stocks after the Coronavirus & Stock Market Crash

Dear Mr. Market:Oil Stocks

We won’t rehash what’s happened to the stock market due to the global pandemic of COVID-19. Like many right now, it’s been overwhelming and just hearing the word “Coronavirus” with constant updates has become all-consuming in everything we do. That said, there will of course be areas of the stock market that continue to get punished but others that provide opportunity once we get through this.

We believe the broad market will recover to the full levels we recently saw within the next three years. Some economic sectors, however, will struggle more than others as have a few additional conflicts to resolve. One such sector is oil and with the Saudi Arabia and Russian trade spat we saw U.S. oil prices drop -34% in one night! Which stocks will survive and which have the best chance to recover?

Continue reading

Commission Free trades are now the norm!

Dear Mr. Market:

To say that the stock market offers a changing landscape is an understatement. It’s up, it’s down, it’s sideways but regardless there is always something new and now…there is something free; stock trading!download

Charles Schwab has truly been a pioneer as being a disruptor and innovator in the financial services world. Once mainly known as a discount brokerage firm for the do-it-yourself and self-directed investor, they created a deep menu of service offerings catering to high net-worth investors but always tried to stick to their roots to still make investing accessible to all. Just last month they shook up the industry once more with a huge announcement… Continue reading

March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2019

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Dear Mr. Market:

Has your alma mater or favorite team already been bounced from the NCAA basketball tournament? My Portfolio Guide can’t change that fact but we can offer you a fresh chance with our annual spin on March Madness. For the ninth year in a row we are rolling out our unique way to share investment themes and overall thoughts on the stock market.

We’re proud to say that My Portfolio Guide was the first financial advisory firm to publish a March Madness investing tournament where we share our picks and match them up against each other! We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

Click here to see Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2019

 

Large Cap

The most boilerplate of portfolios has won out by riding the safe bet over the past few years. This is akin to the March Madness office pool where your coworker, who knows nothing about sports and couldn’t differentiate between a basketball and a football, wins the whole pool of money by simply picking the highest seed in each bracket. What we mean by this with regards to investment asset classes is that since 2013 the Large Cap asset class has been the easy money pick. If you had a decently diversified portfolio (which by design should include exposure to International and Emerging Markets), you lost to the boilerplate and simpleton portfolio that is mainly weighted towards Large Cap. Continue reading

May Gray turns into June Gloom

 

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-3

We have discussed many times how emotionally driven you are. On some days you tempt us with your record setting high wire acts and on others we have our lips virtually wrapped around the barrel of a gun in desperation; the stock market is a wicked playground.

We don’t believe that computers or sophisticated investment algorithms can completely mitigate the perils of the stock market or protect everyone from getting out of their own way, but it can at least be used as a starting point. My Portfolio Guide relies on some very unique tools that assess the stock market each month with a fresh set of eyes. While our method of “reading the tea leaves” is not necessarily a crystal ball, it’s definitely not what most investment advisors use….which is the rear view mirror. Sadly enough, many investment advisors are just like you…they’re human and they chase recent returns and mistakenly look back in history as to what has done well. While this method of analysis is the easiest to sell clients (and themselves) it’s not as effective as taking a completely fresh look at what is happening right now and how that is statistically likely to play out in the near-term. Continue reading

March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2018

Dear Mr. Market:Unknown-2

What’s more exciting to watch: Duke versus North Carolina or Apple versus Amazon? If you’re reading this you know by now that it’s not a trick question but rather our annual opportunity to have some fun spinning the NCAA college basketball tournament into a platform to share our favorite investment themes.

My Portfolio Guide was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing tournament where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

This is the eighth year we’ve done this and it’s become one of the most popular articles on the entire internet!

Click the following link to see the entire bracket for 2018:

Final Four Investing Bracket Picks 2018 

 

Large Cap

Many people now have the rearview mirror or armchair quarterback mentality right now. If you’re to be honest with yourself there are very few folks we met at this point last year that said without question that the stock market would soar to record highs. As a matter of fact, it was quite the opposite. Think back to the start of 2017 as most of us were still digesting the fact that Trump won the election. Most pundits felt that the “Trump bump” would be short lived and that the one thing the stock market doesn’t like is uncertainty …and we had plenty of it!

All that being said, we couldn’t have been more clear that if you kept your politics out of it you could have had a nice year! The easy trade was betting on America and the Large Cap asset class turned in a fine year. Guess what? We still think there is room to run here and the recent correction we experienced is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Key Match-up:

#2 US Steel (X) vs. #3 Reliance Steel (RS)

Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve heard that President Trump wants to reset the playing field on trade imbalances. Continue reading

Stock Market : Points, Percentages, and Perceptions

 

Dear Mr. Market:

What do you think about the “largest point decline in history” ?!?pl9401-1-_custom-99c12255409cbb9e488da1fb6ce0900b683cda9d-s6-c30

Last Monday certainly wasn’t fun for anyone watching their portfolio but if you put things into perspective what you end up with was the 138th largest percentage drop for the S&P 500. The financial media predictably goes bonkers when reporting numbers and this fuels the fire for the average investor. Our beef with them isn’t even the “sky is falling” antics which happen on any big volume or down day but the fact that they skew reality.

We’re not trying to minimize the strong move or the fact that we’re finally seeing volatility back in the markets but keep your common sense hat on when digesting the results. First and foremost, when an index like the Dow Jones is almost at 27,000 points, simple math shows that a -5% drop will equate to about -1,350 points. A five percent pullback is not only par for the course but as we mentioned in our most recent article…very much needed and of course long overdue. With a total of just over -10% we finally have (by definition) reached a correction.

Who knows what Mr. Market has in store for us tomorrow but one thing we can almost guarantee you is that the financial media will be far more excited about it than anyone needs to be. Hysterics and click bait sells more than a rational report explaining stock market action that is actually not unusual nor completely out of historic proportion. Speaking of reports…we invite you to read this special update on our Columbus Strategy.

Click here to read the Columbus Strategy -2018 Stock Market Volatility Report

Maintaining-Discipline-in-the-Face-of-Market-Volatility-1What matters most in times like this is to level set things and to have a disciplined strategy firmly in place. Our signature approach for accounts over $100k is the Columbus Strategy and aside from its long-term track record what gives many clients some peace of mind is knowing that it ultimately looks to mitigate large and extended stock market drawdowns. We’re not so much focused on one month but over the course of a full market cycle you will be hard pressed to find a strategy that does better.

Nobody can consistently time the market but there are certain tactical adjustments that can be made to at least avoid longer stretches of market chaos. If we were to be visibly headed for a recession our stance on this recent correction would be much different than it is now. For the time being we’re approaching this correction exactly like we should be since it’s not our first rodeo; we’re nibbling at positions that we’ve wanted to add to and rebalancing any allocations that are not in line with a portfolio’s respective strategy.

Other than that the absolute worst thing you can do right now is act human! While that sounds crass we’re simply reminding you that people tend to have short memories and get way too emotional. If you want more information on our Columbus Strategy please contact us. Beyond that we will leave you with a quote and saying that we came up with many stock market corrections ago….1607859

“Stay disciplined to stay positive”.

-My Portfolio Guide

 

 

Marijuana Stocks: Growing like a weed?!

Dear Mr. Market:th

Many of our “letters” to you are with a cautionary approach so that readers of this blog fully understand the risks and rewards of engaging with you. With your erratic personality perhaps the last thing you need is a drug to add to your volatile ways. That said, we also attempt to sprinkle in some humor and puns to get our point across…even if you’re at an all-time high (first pun in case you’re not paying attention!).

Whether you are a proponent of legalizing marijuana or not there is no denying that the cannabis industry is real and here to stay. Would it surprise you to learn that cannabis is the United States’ second largest cash crop? Believe it or not it is the second most valuable industry next to corn and is worth over $40 billion! Several reports earlier this year also estimate that legal cannabis sales could grow by at least 30% in 2018.

The marijuana industry is predicted to grow like a weed (second pun). All kidding aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects over 250,000 new jobs in this industry by 2020 which is far more than those expected from manufacturing! By 2024 the BLS actually forecasts manufacturing jobs to decline by 814,000. Ignoring the potential growth in this industry or that it has fast become a major economic driver and job-creation force in the U.S. economy is a mistake.

Public opinion is still divided (not a surprise nowadays…) but it’s rapidly changing. A poll conducted by CBS News in July of 1979 revealed that only 27% of those surveyed thought marijuana should be legal; that number by mid 2017 is now at 61%. Even with this momentum there still remains some obvious hurdles: (1) Marijuana is still illegal at the Federal level and (2) Congress has plenty to focus on right now with healthcare and tax reform so legalization is a lower priority for now.

So…how do you play this opportunity, or should you???th-11

If you’re a true investor as opposed to a speculator we’ll begin by letting you know there are major risks in this budding sector. (please tell us you caught that pun?!) Continue reading