Dear Mr. Market:

In June of 1997, a little online bookstore called Amazon went public at a market capitalization of approximately $440 million. Today, Amazon is worth nearly $3 trillion. A $10,000 investment at that IPO would have turned into a genuinely life-changing sum of money.

Naturally, investors are now looking at the upcoming SpaceX IPO… ticker SPCX, expected to list on Nasdaq around June 12th , and asking the same question: “Is this the next Amazon?”

Maybe. But there is one major difference that most people glossing over the headlines haven’t fully absorbed.

Read more: SpaceX Is Going Public. Here’s Why We’re Not Chasing It on Day One

Amazon went public before most people believed in it. SpaceX is going public after almost everyone already does.

That distinction matters more than most investors realize. And it’s the lens through which we’re evaluating this entire situation.

SPACEX BY THE NUMBERS — MAY 2026

The Biggest IPO in History

SpaceX is expected to debut with a valuation between $1.75 and $2 trillion. For perspective, that would immediately make it one of the most valuable companies on Earth… not just among aerospace or technology companies, but across all companies, full stop.

This isn’t a small startup looking to raise capital. This isn’t a speculative biotech hoping for FDA approval. This is a company that spent nearly a quarter century building dominant positions across multiple industries before ever allowing the public to buy shares. The IPO is expected to raise up to $75 billion…which would shatter the previous record set by Saudi Aramco’s $25.6 billion offering in 2019.

How SpaceX Stacks Up: Landmark IPOs in History

Amazon went public at 3 years old and $440M. SpaceX is going public at 24 years old and $1.8 trillion. Most of the early gains have already been captured by private investors.

SpaceX represents the culmination of a trend we’ve watched for years: elite companies staying private longer and longer while private investors capture most of the early growth. By the time public investors get their opportunity, the easy money has already been made.

Or has it? That’s the trillion-dollar question.

Why Investors Are Excited…and They Should Be

Unlike many IPOs, SpaceX isn’t selling a dream. It already has a real business. Actually, several real businesses. Most investors think of rockets. That’s only part of the story.

Now for the Part Nobody Wants to Talk About

Let’s discuss the uncomfortable part. The valuation.

While almost everyone agrees SpaceX is an extraordinary company, not everyone agrees it’s worth $1.8 trillion today. And the numbers in the S-1 filing give us real reason to pump the brakes.

At a $1.8 trillion valuation on $18.7 billion of revenue, investors aren’t paying for today’s earnings. They’re paying for future Starlink growth. Future AI infrastructure. Future defense contracts. Future lunar and Mars missions. Future technologies that may not even exist yet.

In other words: investors are paying for what SpaceX might become…not what it currently is. And history teaches us that can be both incredibly rewarding and incredibly dangerous.

The IPO Dynamic Nobody Is Discussing

One aspect of the SpaceX IPO deserves far more attention than it’s getting: the share structure.

Reports indicate that only a relatively small percentage of shares will initially be available to the public. However, in a notable twist, SpaceX has reportedly earmarked 30% of the float for retail investors, three times the standard allocation for a mega-cap offering. Goldman Sachs is leading a 21-bank underwriting syndicate. Demand is going to be overwhelming.

What happens when millions of investors all want a tiny slice of the same company at the same time? Prices become detached from fundamentals very quickly. We’ve seen this movie before.

THE LOCK-UP RISK

That doesn’t mean SpaceX will fail as a stock. It simply means investors should understand that enthusiasm alone is not an investment thesis.

One More Thing Worth Flagging

The xAI merger is getting lost in the SpaceX excitement, but it’s a real risk factor. xAI generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, and revenue growth actually slowed to 12.5% in Q1 2026. For comparison, Anthropic just announced run-rate revenue of $47 billion and raised money at a $965 billion valuation. xAI is being valued at a much higher sales multiple than larger, faster-growing competitors. That’s an embedded risk that comes with every share of SPCX you buy.

Meanwhile, Starlink (the only truly profitable part of the business) is showing declining average revenue per user (ARPU) as it expands internationally. Margins are likely to compress. The crown jewel has a scratch on it.

What We’re Doing For Clients

This is the question we’ve already started receiving. The honest answer? We’re not treating the SpaceX IPO like a sporting event. We’re treating it like an investment opportunity. There’s a difference.

OUR APPROACH

For clients who want exposure, we’re inclined to let the dust settle after the IPO, watch how the stock trades during the lock-up expiration window, and revisit with a clearer picture of what the business actually earns at scale. There will likely be a better entry point than Day One.

Our Prediction

Here’s our best guess. The IPO will be wildly successful. Demand will exceed supply. Investors will chase it. The media will celebrate it. The valuation will become increasingly difficult to justify using any traditional metric.

Some people will make fortunes. Some people will buy near the top. Both things can happen simultaneously.

Long term, we wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk as his track record speaks for itself. But we also wouldn’t bet against investor enthusiasm creating excesses along the way. Because markets have a very reliable habit of doing exactly that.

The challenge for every investor right now is determining whether they’re buying the future of humanity…or simply participating in the latest wave of excitement. Those are not always the same thing.

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The irony of the SpaceX IPO is that the company may very well change the world. It may transform communications. It may transform transportation. It may reshape our relationship with artificial intelligence and space itself. And yet…the stock could still disappoint investors who overpay for it. That’s not a criticism of SpaceX. It’s simply how markets work.

Great company. Great story. Great vision. None of those automatically equal a great investment.

“Stay disciplined to stay positive.” – MPG

My Portfolio Guide, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor based in Southern California and serving clients nationwide. We are an independent, fee-only fiduciary offering comprehensive financial planning and personal wealth management. Reach us directly at (562)799-5595 or via email at admin@myportfolioguide.com.