Investing & Diversification: When Less is More

Dear Mr. Market: download

In many of our letters to you we discuss the ups and downs of the stock market. In doing so, we often times will share basic knowledge and investing reminders to our readers to help guide them. Without question, even a rookie investor will have learned the simple advice of diversifying their portfolio. “Do not put all your eggs in one basket!”

While that “advice” is intuitive and seems to make sense, it’s mainly regurgitated by every financial advisor because of one alarming reason. Yes, on one hand it’s with the intent of managing risk but part of the dark reality is because most people (pros included) don’t know what they’re doing. This last sentence may sound harsh but our job is to be candid and also share ideas and truths that you may need to know yet not always hear elsewhere.

If you stop reading this article right now do yourself a favor and at least spend seven minutes when you have more time. The seven minutes we want you to spend are watching the following clip of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Click here to view it and learn their basic belief that most investors over diversify and are simply “protecting themselves from ignorance”. Continue reading

Manic Market

Dear Mr. Market:51Xur1KZWKL

For some of our newer readers it might serve us well to remind everyone of who you are and what this “Mr. Market” character is all about. If you haven’t read Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, you need to. Even though it was written in 1949, much of what Graham wrote is still applicable today and it’s simply one of the best books on the stock market ever written. Warren Buffett himself loves the book and says that it changed his life. Here’s a summary from Buffett and his description of our very own “Mr. Market”: Continue reading

Why buy Gold and Why Now?

Dear Mr. Market:download

We have commented many times on how people have short memories. In the case of recent stock market behavior, however, there is no way one could forget what a ride we’ve all been on. Our job today is not to draw attention to the very obvious past but to one area of the market that is not always directly connected to stocks or bonds.

Do you have gold in your portfolio and if so, should you buy more, hold on to what you have, or dump it? Continue reading

Should I convert my IRA to a Roth IRA?

Dear Mr. Market:download-2

With regard to investing, sometimes no action is the proper action…but not always!

Now might be a very good time for a very specific act: converting assets from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Here a few reasons why: Continue reading

Best Oil Stocks after the Coronavirus & Stock Market Crash

Dear Mr. Market:Oil Stocks

We won’t rehash what’s happened to the stock market due to the global pandemic of COVID-19. Like many right now, it’s been overwhelming and just hearing the word “Coronavirus” with constant updates has become all-consuming in everything we do. That said, there will of course be areas of the stock market that continue to get punished but others that provide opportunity once we get through this.

We believe the broad market will recover to the full levels we recently saw within the next three years. Some economic sectors, however, will struggle more than others as have a few additional conflicts to resolve. One such sector is oil and with the Saudi Arabia and Russian trade spat we saw U.S. oil prices drop -34% in one night! Which stocks will survive and which have the best chance to recover?

Continue reading

Is there any Good News on COVID-19?

Dear Mr. Market:download

We obviously live in a crazy world with a news cycle that is non-stop. We read this a few years ago but for every piece of “good news” there are 17 being reported of bad news. This is not strictly related to Coronavirus / COVID-19, but with news in general.

Earlier this week a client of ours sent us some articles and pieces of good news with verifiable links to support the stories we perhaps don’t hear enough about.

Finally some better news with documentation…

There is light at the end of the tunnel and here is some news worth taking a peak at: Continue reading

Has the Stock Market reached Capitulation?

Dear Mr. Market:Worst Days Ever for S&P 500

We are living in scary times, as investors and as human beings in general. With stock markets cratering and the uncertainty surrounding Coronavirus, it’s hard to remember when things were this bad or uncertain. How and when will things get better?

Regarding the market, there are no absolute rules, but it’s generally agreed investors have to fully capitulate before a bear market downturn can find its low point and eventually turn back the other way. The idea is that all the bad news, expectations and fear have to hit their worst point, so there is finally nothing else to drive the market lower. After that, anything remotely positive or even just “not bad” starts the base for the ensuing bull, and the market can begin climbing again.

The dilemma is that no one sounds an “all-clear” signal to let you know when that point has been reached. Think about the low point of the last bear, March of 2009. President Obama was freshly inaugurated (cause for optimism or pessimism, depending on your political leaning). Chrysler, GM, and Ford were near bankruptcy. Unemployment was climbing. A massive stimulus package had just been signed, but no on knew how effective it might be. Investors wondered if their portfolios would ever recover to where they had been. Those were troubling times, but we all know the market turned sharply upward that month and the bull continued for 11 years. It’s all much more clear looking back in the rearview mirror but at the time it was certainly not so.

Returns 1,3,5,& 10 years after Worst Days

Stock Market returns 1,3,5, and 10 years after Worst 1 Days Ever

There is no saying what will bring about capitulation with the current market. In our last column we noted how drawn out the 2000-2002 bear was. Things could get worse before they hit their inflection point. But it will come…if it hasn’t already. Yesterday was the third worst day in the history of the stock market and many threw in the towel. We’ve also advised that panic is never a strategy, and keeping your head as an investor right now is absolutely the right thing to do. One cannot change the past or the fact that this event took on disastrous proportions that nobody could have imagined. This is different than a standard bear market in that it’s more like an unforeseen natural disaster but in this case one that is not specific to some other part of the world; it’s truly global and caught the entire globe flat footed.

Human instinct is to seek shelter when danger is imminent, and that gives us the urge to abandon our better instincts. Sell all your stocks! Go to cash! End the pain! This might provide short-term comfort or relief, but assuming you need some amount of growth to reach your goals, you now have the dilemma of when and how to get back in.

We would advise staying the course, while being prudent. Strategic rebalancing can make sense, but not drastic changes to your allocation. If you have a plan in place that you felt good about during the market highs a month ago, stick to it, and revisit it if needed. Heavyweight boxing champ Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” The market is definitely throwing some serious punches right now. How will you answer the bell?

Lastly, we’re seeing two sets of behaviors right now; one group of people is scrambling to buy toilet paper while another is doing whatever they can to buy stocks. Mark our words in that this will be an inflection point and one where your decisions/behavior today will truly impact where you sit 10 years from now.

The Best Worst Days Ever

Dear Mr. Market:IMG_1253

Behind the curtain of this investment blog and our series of letters to a fictional market character (Mr. Market)…there are actual human beings. We’re certainly not hiding behind a fluffy topic, but on days like today we want to share how life can parallel with things like the stock market; it can also really put things in perspective as we look back at where we were at certain points in life. Additionally, it sometimes helps people know that unlike many other articles and financial advisors you’ll find on the internet, My Portfolio Guide doesn’t cut and paste regurgitated garbage or use a ghost writer to relay our message.

Today is March 13th…Friday the 13th! Today it’s also me, Matthew Pixa, who is writing to you and letting you know that it’s the day my daughter Isabel turns 18. Perhaps we’ll do more of these personal articles but it won’t hurt our feelings if you don’t want to read about my baby girl’s birthday when the stock market is down -25%. You be the judge, but please read on and see where I’m going with this. Continue reading

Panic is never a strategy…

Dear Mr. Market:5 years

Today marks the anniversary of the stock market bottom 11 years ago. How ironic is it that on March 9th 2009, when the market and everyone in finance was curled up in a fetal position, we now are witnessing a market drubbing like we haven’t seen in years on that same anniversary date? For those with short-term memory lapses, 11 years ago the Dow Jones went from 14,164 in October of 2007 down to 6,547 on March 9, 2009. The “Financial Crisis” of that period effectively saw a -53.77% decline in the stock market.  What has ensued since then happens to be the longest bull market run in history. Continue reading

Coronavirus and the Stock Market sell-off

Dear Mr. Market:https___blogs-images.forbes.com_joeljohnson_files_2018_04_market-correction-used-for-forbes-1200x720

It’s without question that the recent headlines surrounding the coronavirus have escalated and are rattling everyone’s nerves. The markets have already given back all the early gains of this young year. With natural concern certain questions arise: (1) will this get worse? (2) will it lead to a bear market? , and (3) what should one do right now?

With some of these questions we want to share the viewpoint from our favorite economist, Mr. Brian Wesbury from First Trust.

Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years.  These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.

Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient!  Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way.  Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%.  During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs. Continue reading