Tag Archives: stocks

Warren Buffett Is 60% Cash: Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?

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Dear Mr. Market:

A few months ago, when the hype machine was redlining over the SpaceX IPO, we wrote about the dangers of chasing glamorous narratives on day one. We noted how easy it is to get blinded by shiny, new tech stories while glossing over basic valuation rules. We love the excitement of a hot market.

But while the retail crowd is busy looking for spaceships, the most successful investor in human history is quietly building a fortress out of boring, old-fashioned greenbacks.

Lately, you’ve given the financial media a lot of ammunition, Mr. Market. The talking heads are looking at Berkshire Hathaway’s balance sheet and shouting from the rooftops. Under the strategic guidance of chairman Warren Buffett and CEO Greg Abel, the cash hoard has climbed to an astronomical $397.4 billion.

Naturally, the “perma-bears”…or those we affectionately call the “Broken Clock Club” (because they’re guaranteed to be right twice a day)…are having a absolute field day. They point frantic fingers at Berkshire’s $400 billion mountain of cash and Treasury bills, screaming, “Look! Even Buffett is hoarding cash because the bubble is about to pop!”

It sounds logical. But it’s a total mirage.

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The Genius, The Bear, and the Broken Clock

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Dear Mr. Market:

You’ve been around long enough to know that the smartest people in the room are not always the most profitable ones. Case in point: Michael Burry just published what may be the most meticulously researched bearish manifesto since… well, since his last one.

Let’s give credit where it’s due. The man called the 2008 housing collapse with surgical precision, bet his career and his investors’ capital on it, and was right while everyone, including his own clients, thought he’d lost his mind. That’s not luck. That’s genius. If you haven’t seen The Big Short, go watch it. Then come back.

But here’s the thing about genius: it doesn’t come with an expiration date stamped on the worry.

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Bulls, Bears, and Ballots: Election Years & the Stock Market

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Dear Mr. Market:

If you’re watching an NBA basketball game and you have one player to take a final shot to win the game, who do you choose? Like him or not the guy who has scored the second most points in the history of basketball is LeBron James and he has made 50.5% of all shots he’s ever taken. Let’s switch sports to much worse odds, like baseball, where the average hitter is around .250 for a batting average. Even the best the game has ever seen was the great Ty Cobb who hit .366 for his career. Speaking of winning or losing, the mecca of odds making is in Las Vegas of course, and if you’re ever interested in losing money, just know that on average you can come out with a winning blackjack hand only 42.4% of the time.

New year, fresh canvas, but pretty much the same problems….So what are the odds of the market going up, down, or sideways in 2024?

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Permanent Portfolio Review

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Dear Mr. Market:

Simple allocation ?

In a year where the stock market has provided zero safe places to hide…you may have changed, the markets certainly have, but one thing has not; the Permanent Portfolio.

We’ve reviewed the Permanent Portfolio before but believe it’s time to check in and provide an update on how it’s doing relative to the broad markets now as well as chime in on whether the strategy still has merit going forward. For some quick background, our first original review was written in June of 2013 (click here to see that). Most recently we revisited the topic with an update in November of 2020 (click here) as we climbed out of one of the wildest years in world history amidst a global pandemic.

If you didn’t hit the embedded article links above, the Permanent Portfolio is pretty simple at face value. The Permanent Portfolio is a seemingly basic portfolio allocation strategy created by investment advisor Harry Browne in the 1980’s and outlined in his book Fail-Safe Investing back in 2001. Here’s the secret (simple) sauce and how each asset class should do during repeatable economic cycles:

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Should You Buy Target (TGT) Stock?

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Target InvestigationDear Mr. Market:

With the holiday season now in the rear view mirror U.S. consumers are being reminded of the world we live in.  In the middle of the holiday shopping season Target made an announcement that had an impact on millions of individuals.  On December 19th Target announced that 40 million credit and debit cards had been jeopardized by a cyber attack.  Since then the number of cards has grown to 70 million, it has been reported that the number could grow to as many as 110 million!  Just last week Neiman Marcus released news that it is dealing with a similar situation and other retailers are likely to be in the same boat in the coming weeks.

On Friday (January 10th) Target announced that the security issue had a negative impact on their holiday shopping results.  Stores saw sales decline up to 5% (depending on location) when compared to the previous years results.  When 4th quarter earnings are announced on February 26, 2014, the additional expenses the company has incurred due to the hacking incident will certainly have an impact.  CEO Greg Steinhafel announced that 4th quarter EPS (earnings per share) were lowered to $1.20 – $1.30 from the previous guidance of $1.50 – $1.60.  Continue reading →