If you’ve ever taken a course in Economics hopefully the one thing you retained was the law of supply and demand. Heck…even without a formal education in economics you still know what it is. Have you ever been to a ballgame or an amusement park on a scorching hot day and overpaid for an ice cold drink? You didn’t pay a higher price because of increased quality. When there is a lack of supply but there is excessive demand the price is going up. This same fundamental economic concept is what drives the share price of a stock rapidly higher during a “short squeeze”. Continue reading
Monthly Archives: October 2013
How to Add 3 Nobel Prizes to your Portfolio
What if you, the investor, had all the knowledge and findings that it took to win a Nobel Prize in Economics? Would you be a better investor? Believe it or not…with the amount of news disseminated in today’s hyper-information and “data dumping” world…you likely already have all it takes to be a more disciplined and well schooled investor.
This past Monday (10/14/2013) the winners of the prestigious Nobel Prize for Economics where announced. All three winners were American, which marks a trend as at least one American has won the award since 1999. The winners: Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller were recognized for their outstanding research and work in the financial markets. While their work does not perfectly align there are several similarities and the bottom line is that you can never trust Mr. Market!
Summary Of The Winners:
- Eugene Fama’s research has revealed the efficiency of financial markets. If you’re a financial advisor who makes a living pitching expensive mutual funds or annuity products at clients you won’t likely have a framed portrait of Dr. Fama in your plush office. Fama basically states that the market absorbs information so quickly that investors simply can’t outperform it consistently. He is credited for popularizing the use of index funds as an investment option.
- Lars Peter Hansen works strictly with data (econometrics), creating statistical models in an effort to test competing theories. His work has allowed researchers to focus on what truly drives the financial markets. Of the three winners Hansen is the least known and popular but he ironically helps connect the other two winners’ work into something investors need to be aware of; you simply need to derive conclusions from what you do AND do not know.
- Robert Shiller is best known for creating the Case-Shiller Home Price Index Study and now perhaps for the fact that he is married to Janet Yellen, the next Federal Reserve Chairman. We’re huge fans of behavioral finance so the next time you hear someone talk about a “bubble” you will know who originally broke ground on the concept. His research has shown that investors are irrational and that markets develop bubbles that will eventually burst (he predicted both the Tech and Real Estate Bubbles). Continue reading
2013: The Year of Stock Market Headline Horrors
2013 has truly been a year of political headlines and deadlines. We’ve been yanked around with market threatening troubles ranging from the fiscal cliff, to sequestration, to the government shutdown, to the debt ceiling etc.
All the while the market continues to defy odds which further exasperates any rationally thinking mind.
The irony of recent headlines and the overall market environment is that it’s easy to make a convincing case that they’ll either go down this last quarter of 2013 or that they’ll finish strong and continue their banner-like year. Depending on who you follow you’ll end up being bullish, bearish, or completely confused! This article will be short and sweet but at the end of it all you’ll know exactly where we stand and what we believe most investors should be doing. Continue reading
Sorry Mutual Fund: You’re Fired!
It has been said that eight of the most expensive words in the business world are: “Because we have always done it that way!” How often have we heard these words in our personal or professional life? Where would we be as a country if we embraced this phrase? Isn’t it safe to say life as we know it would not be the same if generations before us didn’t challenge the norm and truly “think outside the box”?
For decades Wall Street has fought change and attempted to maintain a shroud of secrecy with investors. Mr. Market has become very skilled at pushing aside information and research that questions the norm and in many cases proves him completely wrong. In this article we will look at some facts and figures that simply can’t be argued with or twisted into something that they are not. If you are an investor who owns any mutual funds you need to read this! Continue reading