Target your sell discipline

Target arrow 1Dear Mr. Market:

There you go again Mr. Market … You’ve trumpeted your tempting sirens and lured in people who were deathly scared of the stock market to now jump in. The S&P 500 is once again flirting with all-time highs but is the music about to stop? You make it easy to buy a stock but why is it so hard for you share the catalysts that tell investors to sell? Mr. Market is famous for encouraging you to sell with emotion but isn’t there a better way?

In our opinion, there are three main criteria that should be used in forming a disciplined and repeatable sell decision. In order to be a successful investor you need to master and take them all into account before you ever buy a stock.

So…what are the three main criteria?

  1. Fundamental Analysis: There are a slew of fundamental issues that could warrant a sell decision. If you’re willing to buy a stock you’ll need to monitor fundamental metrics ranging from earnings, valuation, cash flow, and debt, among others. Lumped into this category should be a keen awareness of key changes in management and their effectiveness.
  2. Technical Analysis: Whether you believe in following the charts and trading patterns of a stock or not…you still need to be aware of them. Like it or not, many decisions from the bulk of the investing world are made or triggered due to technical analysis so even if you think it’s hogwash don’t be short-sighted and ignore them.
  3. Investor Sentiment: Ideally, you’ve kicked the tires and performed your due diligence (reasons #1 and #2 above) on what made you buy the stock in the first place. If the honeymoon phase is no longer there, it may be time to sell. Don’t get us wrong here…this is not about selling because everyone else is. The idea here is to analyze whether the trend is moving in a direction that is not going to help you as a shareholder. Of the three criteria this is perhaps the most challenging to master because it forces you to use your eyes and brain as opposed to your emotions.

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MPG Core Tactical 60/40: October 2014 Performance Update


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Dear Mr. Market:

When it comes to flipping over a new page of your calendar we know you could care less what month it is! You, (the market) have no idea (or interest) whether it’s November or March. Unfortunately, we are all inclined to pay attention to the calendar because those that run our 24 hour media/news cycle get paid to make such an imprint on our brains.

October is a bad month for the stock market, right?

Wrong!

Again, we’re trained to think so. Sure, October has had some dates to remember… The month is famous for some market crashes like the “The Panic of 1907”, “Black Tuesday” (which kicked off the 1929 crash), and “Black Monday”, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones dropped 22% in just one day.

Ironically enough, most bad Octobers have been due to issues that came from September. Two of the three above listed crashes were delayed reactions from catalysts that kicked off in September; which historically actually brings more down markets than does October.

All that being said, we had a wild October with some long lost volatility! After the S&P 500 peaked on September 18th, it was all downhill from there until October 15th. The last two weeks of the month were the strongest since July of 2009. For those with short-term memories, that was right after the sky had fallen and nobody trusted any “bear market rallies”.

This time “it’s different” in that we haven’t seen a meaningful correction in years. The S&P 500 bounced back 7% in two weeks and in case you’re wondering…we’re once again bumping up against “overbought” conditions. This is the type of market that can absolutely make you insane. (more on this thought later…

Here’s the current summary of the MPG Core Tactical 60/40 portfolio mix, which is updated as of this writing (November 3, 2014).

Click here to compare our portfolio against the benchmark.

What adjustments did we make? Continue reading

Should You Buy Target (TGT) Stock?

Target InvestigationDear Mr. Market:

With the holiday season now in the rear view mirror U.S. consumers are being reminded of the world we live in.  In the middle of the holiday shopping season Target made an announcement that had an impact on millions of individuals.  On December 19th Target announced that 40 million credit and debit cards had been jeopardized by a cyber attack.  Since then the number of cards has grown to 70 million, it has been reported that the number could grow to as many as 110 million!  Just last week Neiman Marcus released news that it is dealing with a similar situation and other retailers are likely to be in the same boat in the coming weeks.

On Friday (January 10th) Target announced that the security issue had a negative impact on their holiday shopping results.  Stores saw sales decline up to 5% (depending on location) when compared to the previous years results.  When 4th quarter earnings are announced on February 26, 2014, the additional expenses the company has incurred due to the hacking incident will certainly have an impact.  CEO Greg Steinhafel announced that 4th quarter EPS (earnings per share) were lowered to $1.20 – $1.30 from the previous guidance of $1.50 – $1.60.  Continue reading