You’ve certainly kicked 2016 off with a bang! Even investors that rarely, if ever, look at their portfolio are aware of the rough start to the New Year. Over $8 trillion in market valuations has seemingly disappeared in the blink of an eye. Many are pounding the table with a bear market narrative capturing your attention and emotions but is there anything truly different this time?
There are many different factors at play in this volatile market environment but in our opinion none of them are really all that new nor are they indicative of a bear market, a recession, or impending crash. We’ll briefly touch on each of them but at the end of this article you may be surprised to learn why we believe this market could bounce strongly when least expected.
Currently there are three factors that are dramatically impacting the markets: China, Oil and the Fed. It appears that when these are combined it creates a combustible combination that not even the most seasoned analysts know how to handle! The reality is that the stock market and all the ‘experts’, who analyze and report on it, seem to have short-term memories. For lack of a better description people have also been put to sleep and forget what it’s like to see a normal market correction. Let’s quickly break them down and attempt to put them in perspective: Continue reading →
Just a few short months ago we experienced the seasonal sensation known as Black Friday where consumers lose grasp of reality all in the search for a great deal. People camp overnight on sidewalks in an effort to be one of the first shoppers inside a big box store and take advantage of a bargain they can brag about to all their friends. Buying a large screen television at 50% of retail is certainly exciting but do the same individuals get excited when the equity markets present similar opportunities?
Investors display behavior that is nearly a complete opposite when the markets or an individual stock drop in price when compared to a retail store sale. Rather than racing to get in a store at the crack of dawn they dash for the exit, submitting sell orders as quickly as they can with no rhyme or reason. Throughout various market cycles and economic environments Mr. Market presents investors with buying opportunities yet few actually take advantage of them. You don’t have to look far to find a sector that has experienced a price reduction of 50% in the last six months (the majority of that correction taking place in just the last three months!). You would have to be living ‘off the grid’ or under a rock to not realize that what we are talking about is oil. Continue reading →