Yesterday seemed like the start of the Great Depression for some pundits and nervous nellies. Fear sells, and negative prognosis appears smarter than positive outlooks for whatever reason. The reality, and key reminder we wish to bring up again, is that the long awaited correction has yet to come. As of this writing, we are literally only -3.91% off of all-time S&P 500 highs in the market.
It should be noted that AAII Bearish Sentiment reading is as high as its been since the last most major S&P 500 sell-off.
What’s the first term you think of when discussing the economy? Stocks, bonds, gold? How about Supply & Demand?
On a recent flight to Salt Lake City, Utah, we saw a “picture worth a thousand words”. Matt Pixa, founder of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, took this picture from the air and also went out to pick the brains of some contacts he has in the import/export business to help put more color to the canvas.
If you zoom in on the picture it almost doesn’t do it justice. There are almost 50 cargo ships waiting to unload but basically stuck out there for weeks. Why are all these cargo ships lined up and floating outside the Long Beach and Los Angeles ports?
The stock market has provided many sayings and memorable catchphrases that people tend to regurgitate ; some have merit and some are just garbage.
If you’re a regular reader of Dear Mr. Market, or a client of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, you’ll know that our all-time favorite is “The four most dangerous words in investing are …This time it’s different” -Sir John Templeton. Here are some other all-time adages that you’ve undoubtedly heard:
“Buy low sell high” Uh…yeah, but easier said than done.
“The trend is your friend” Sure….until it’s not!
“If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks” -John Bogle
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” -John Maynard Keynes
So…what does “buy the rumor and sell the news” mean? You probably know that the stock market is full of speculation, great stories, and chock-full of hidden nuggets as well as potential land mines. Even if you’re not an experienced investor or trader, at some point you’ll figure out that by the time your neighbor (you know the guy who never loses and is always up) tells you about a stock tip…the ink on the newspaper is already dry and that idea is likely stale.
We’ve written you hundreds of letters over the past decade and on occasion it’s nice to put a face with the name! Last week, Matt Pixa of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, was given the honor and opportunity to present an Economic Outlook to the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce.
We share it with you here and look forward to your feedback and questions!
We obviously live in a crazy world with a news cycle that is non-stop. We read this a few years ago but for every piece of “good news” there are 17 being reported of bad news. This is not strictly related to Coronavirus / COVID-19, but with news in general.
Earlier this week a client of ours sent us some articles and pieces of good news with verifiable links to support the stories we perhaps don’t hear enough about.
Finally some better news with documentation…
There is light at the end of the tunnel and here is some news worth taking a peak at: Continue reading →
Today marks the anniversary of the stock market bottom 11 years ago. How ironic is it that on March 9th 2009, when the market and everyone in finance was curled up in a fetal position, we now are witnessing a market drubbing like we haven’t seen in years on that same anniversary date? For those with short-term memory lapses, 11 years ago the Dow Jones went from 14,164 in October of 2007 down to 6,547 on March 9, 2009. The “Financial Crisis” of that period effectively saw a -53.77% decline in the stock market. What has ensued since then happens to be the longest bull market run in history. Continue reading →
It’s without question that the recent headlines surrounding the coronavirus have escalated and are rattling everyone’s nerves. The markets have already given back all the early gains of this young year. With natural concern certain questions arise: (1) will this get worse? (2) will it lead to a bear market? , and (3) what should one do right now?
With some of these questions we want to share the viewpoint from our favorite economist, Mr. Brian Wesbury from First Trust.
Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.
Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient! Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way. Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%. During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs. Continue reading →
Chalk it up to the “dog days of summer” but we haven’t written a letter to you in a while. Perhaps this is in part to the wild ride you’ve sent investors on since the whipsaw action and insane volatility we saw this past December. For those of us with short-term memory issues, the year ended in brutal fashion with the worst December in 80 years. If you sold out of your investments, threw in the towel and fell prey to your emotions, you then missed the best January the stock market has seen in 80 years.
If you still haven’t paid much attention then perhaps the opening of this past week also hasn’t phased you…or should it?! Continue reading →
You’ve had some wild days but perhaps none were as volatile or memorable as October 19, 1987! 30 years ago today you plunged -508 points for a record -22% decline in just one day! By today’s standards the 508 point decline wouldn’t be something to celebrate but wouldn’t really move the needle too much; only about a -2.2% decline. Believe it or not we’ve now endured drops like this 17 times since then!
Speaking of today, however, what would it look like if we had another stock market crash? If the stock market lost -22% in one day we would see the Dow Jones drop about -5,094 points as of today’s close.
We have two questions for you with regard to this not so pleasant walk down stock market memory lane: Continue reading →
Is your bracket already busted? This year’s March Madness tournament opened up with very few upsets until this past weekend. Much like the stock market, we see a similar trend happening right now. What follows is how we see things panning out but first, here’s a little background on how one of the most famous sporting events in the United States correlates to the investing landscape.
Seven years ago we became the first Registered Investment Advisor to use the NCAA basketball tournament as a way to show our readers a forward-looking view on the stock market! We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Last year started off much differently than 2017 and as we wrap up the first quarter …some trends are emerging while others continue. If you eyeball the overall theme of this years bracket it will become clear that we’re picking some stocks that should continue to do well under the Trump administration. Whether you love him or hate him, ever since Donald Trump assumed office, the stock market has risen. The proverbial “Trump bump” is real and while we personally believe he needs to stay away from Twitter, there is no question that the stock market and certain economic sectors are primed to perform. Continue reading →