We have discussed many times how emotionally driven you are. On some days you tempt us with your record setting high wire acts and on others we have our lips virtually wrapped around the barrel of a gun in desperation; the stock market is a wicked playground.
We don’t believe that computers or sophisticated investment algorithms can completely mitigate the perils of the stock market or protect everyone from getting out of their own way, but it can at least be used as a starting point. My Portfolio Guide relies on some very unique tools that assess the stock market each month with a fresh set of eyes. While our method of “reading the tea leaves” is not necessarily a crystal ball, it’s definitely not what most investment advisors use….which is the rear view mirror. Sadly enough, many investment advisors are just like you…they’re human and they chase recent returns and mistakenly look back in history as to what has done well. While this method of analysis is the easiest to sell clients (and themselves) it’s not as effective as taking a completely fresh look at what is happening right now and how that is statistically likely to play out in the near-term. Continue reading →
Every month we write to you and chat about the markets and how people are behaving based on your results. Sometimes it’s good to refresh (click here) our memory of why we do this and what the MPG Core Tactical 60/40 portfolio is intended to do. First and foremost, our aim with this series of monthly articles is not to “beat the market”, race against any benchmark, or pretend we have a crystal ball. In the most ironic way possible, those that follow this series of articles will eventually understand that the primary focus of this exercise is to show you how picking stocks and trying to “time markets” is usually a hit or miss expedition. At the end of the day (or in this case, whenever we decide to stop writing these “letters”), you will likely see that holding a properly disciplined and balanced portfolio of instruments tracking specific indexes beats out most “potpourri” type portfolios. Continue reading →