“The bubble is about to pop”, right? After years of the constant drumbeat about an “inevitable” recession, the market is sitting near record highs again. But for those paying attention, the mood under the surface feels different. The leadership baton is being transferred …not toward the headline-making names that powered the last leg of the bull run, but toward the quiet, defensive corners of the market: utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. The kinds of stocks you buy when growth gets wobbly and investors start seeking shelter.
And yet, despite the sector rotation, the broader indexes remain firm. It’s almost as if you’re daring us to overthink it.
This morning I had the pleasure of speaking at the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce breakfast at the Beach House … a room full of business owners, community leaders, and friends. For those who don’t know me, I’m Matt Pixa, founder of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, an independent fee-only wealth management firm. I’ve been honored to serve on the Chamber’s Board of Directors in the past, and was named 2021 Businessperson of the Year. While my schedule doesn’t allow me to attend as often as I’d like, it’s always a privilege to come back, reconnect, and hopefully provide a few takeaways that help people make smarter financial decisions.
Instead of giving a 15-minute “commercial” about my firm, I wanted to do something more interactive. So I asked everyone to take one of my business cards, flip it over, and write down the word RETIRE. Each letter became a conversation point for one of the six key areas of financial planning every person should be thinking about — no matter their age or stage of life.
These are the pillars that determine whether your financial plan can withstand market volatility, economic uncertainty, and life’s inevitable curveballs. If you missed the breakfast, here’s a recap of the discussion (and yes, you can watch the full 18-minute video below).
One of our favorite recurring themes here at Dear Mr. Market is what we like to call the “Broken Clock Club” — the group of perma-bears, doomcasters, and media pundits who reliably forecast financial catastrophe year after year. Like a broken clock, they’re eventually right… but for all the wrong reasons and far too late to be of any use to investors.
Let’s rewind to December 2023. Headlines were ablaze with bold predictions of economic calamity. Chief among them was the infamous economist Harry Dent, who warned of a 1929-style market crash hitting in early 2024. (click here to review that article that grabbed a lot of nervous eyeballs back then). Dent’s call wasn’t exactly an outlier; it echoed a chorus of dire predictions centered on Fed policy, inflation hangovers, geopolitical instability, commercial real estate defaults, and consumer weakness.
Yet here we are, approaching mid-2025, with the S&P 500 not only above its December 2023 levels, but clawing its way back and approaching highs throughout the first half of this year. What gives?
The tariff headlines are back, and as usual, they make for great cable news debates and political talking points. But beneath the surface, there are far more serious considerations. Recent commentary has raised three key concerns about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China—and none of them are as simple as price hikes at Walmart.
This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opportunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about. While NCAA teams battle for supremacy on the court, our annual March Madness Investing Bracket pits stocks and ETFs against each other to determine the investment themes we think are likely to outperform the remainder of the year. The competition spans four “regions”: Large Cap, Small & Mid Cap, International, and Bonds & Alternatives.
Who will be this year’s champion? Let’s break it down (click here to see the full bracket).
Ah, tariffs. The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bob’s imported car parts now cost a fortune. But let’s set the record straight—tariffs are not always a pure cause of inflation. At least, not in the way most people think.
Are you enjoying the Senate confirmation hearings with all the theater, finger pointing, and viral media clips? From an investment standpoint there was one hearing to pay attention to on Wednesday and that was with President-elect Trump’s pick for Energy Secretary, Chris Wright. At first glance he certainly touts the “drill baby drill” narrative but Wright said he’s excited about geothermal (heat energy that comes from the Earth) as “an enormous, abundant energy resource below everyone’s feet.” Wright said he wants to accelerate the development of nuclear energy so it can meet a far greater share of the world’s demand for electricity.
Have you also noticed how small things often pack a big punch? Microchips power our digital world, microplastics remind us of our environmental duties, and now microreactors are poised to redefine how we think about energy. Let’s dive into whether this is the investment opportunity of the century or just another overhyped promise in the energy space.
Ah, Mr. Market, you’ve never been one for subtlety, have you? We’ve all grown accustomed to your erratic behavior, but these past few weeks, you’ve outdone yourself. The dizzying heights we’ve climbed recently have turned into a sharp, gut-wrenching descent. It’s like we were steadily walking up the stairs, only to realize we were stepping into an elevator shaft, and now gravity is having its way with us.
The Stairs Up: Slow, Steady, and Full of Hope
For the past year, we’ve been witnessing a remarkable climb in the market. Fueled by optimism, the scent of economic recovery was in the air. Tech stocks were soaring, companies were beating earnings expectations, and the Fed’s steady (or perhaps stubborn) hand reassured us that we were on fairly solid ground. Like the patient climb of a seasoned mountaineer, each step forward felt measured, deliberate. Investors were content, seeing their portfolios grow incrementally with each passing day.
If your alma mater or favorite college team did not make the tournament on Selection Sunday, we’ve got another option for you!
Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together.
My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about in the year ahead.
Click here or below to see or enlarge the entire bracket for 2024.
Our Final Four Investing Bracket slots 48 positions against each other and we mainly want to show why we see one investment doing better than another over the course of the next year. One caveat to keep in mind is that while there are 48 total investments within our bracket, it does not mean we like them all; some are there for illustrative purposes or to discuss a certain theme playing out in the stock market. Lastly, the way these are initially “seeded” does not reflect our current confidence in them. For example, a #1 seeded investment could lose right out of the gate just as a #12 could potentially win it all. In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year.
If you’re watching an NBA basketball game and you have one player to take a final shot to win the game, who do you choose? Like him or not the guy who has scored the second most points in the history of basketball is LeBron James and he has made 50.5% of all shots he’s ever taken. Let’s switch sports to much worse odds, like baseball, where the average hitter is around .250 for a batting average. Even the best the game has ever seen was the great Ty Cobb who hit .366 for his career. Speaking of winning or losing, the mecca of odds making is in Las Vegas of course, and if you’re ever interested in losing money, just know that on average you can come out with a winning blackjack hand only 42.4% of the time.
New year, fresh canvas, but pretty much the same problems….So what are the odds of the market going up, down, or sideways in 2024?
Dear Mr. Market: 