March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2016

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March MadnessDear Mr. Market:

The entertainment and shock value you provide us with the stock market might meet its match over the next few weeks. Are you ready for some surprises and wild finishes? That’s what March Madness brings each and every year! It’s also an opportunity to take a high level view of the current investment environment with what lies ahead.

Six years ago we became the first Registered Investment Advisor to use the NCAA basketball tournament as a way to show our readers a forward-looking view on the stock market. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (companies) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.

This year we will dive right into our investing bracket looks and how we think the remainder of 2016 will play out.

Click here to see the entire bracket.

To set the table let’s take a quick moment to recall last year and the undefeated Kentucky team. They came into the Final Four 38-0 and were a virtual lock to win it all but as you may remember the Wisconsin Badgers shocked everyone and provided the surprise millions of fans tune in for every year! This type of “upset” is exactly how we think 2016 will pan out in the Large Cap asset class.

Large Cap

Five years from now people will look back at 2015 as a year that the stock market extended its bull market run for one more year. Investors will exhibit a short-term memory lapse and forget that it actually was a very rough year with heightened volatility, the first correction, and a market that actually turned in negative numbers if you looked “under the hood”. The problem is…most people will not remember this and only look to see the S&P 500 finished positive +1.38%.

Without the “FANG” stock phenomena, however, 2015 would have been very negative. In other words, Continue reading →

John Hussman says we are headed for a stock market crash!

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UnknownDear Mr. Market:

If you’re smart…does it imply that you’re always right? In many instances that may often be the case, but when it comes to investing, some of the most brilliant people on the planet are reduced to buffoons by irrational and unpredictable markets. When you add in a 24/7 media cycle and the fact that human beings are emotionally driven creatures…your IQ (or stubbornness) can actually work against you.

As huge fans of behavioral finance we also want to once again remind you that your own brain (whether it be “smart” or pedestrian) is wired to connect certain dots even if the conclusion is wrong or completely random. One famous adage will serve as the theme for this entire article:

“Even a broken clock is right twice a day.”

Take a brief moment to read the following article that surfaced last week: Continue reading →

The silver lining behind a down market – converting to a Roth IRA

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RothiraDear Mr. Market:

The wild ride continues! As we have addressed before, the nasty trifecta of oil, China and the Fed continue to hammer the markets. Moments like these can make or break portfolios and dramatically impact your future goals. Most investors have an IRA that they either have been funding or perhaps a rollover IRA from a previous 401(k) that sits on the sidelines and they periodically, if ever, look at. Volatile markets like this present an opportunity with these IRAs that could prove to be very advantageous!

“It’s almost like a half-off sale. If your IRA has dropped significantly in value, not only will the cost (of converting to a Roth IRA) be minimal, all the upside will be tax-free. Now is the time to strike!” – Ed Slott, The IRA Advisor

*** Before we dive into the specifics of converting an IRA it is important to note that we encourage you to consult your CPA or Tax Advisor to discuss in detail.  We are not tax advisors and (unless you are a client) we do not know your specific financial or tax situation.***

The decision about converting an IRA to a Roth IRA comes down to three key factors: taxes, cost and time. Continue reading →

3 old stories rattling the stock market in 2016

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Dear Mr. Market:

You’ve certainly kicked 2016 off with a bang! Even investors that rarely, if ever, look at their portfolio are aware of the rough start to the New Year. Over $8 trillion in market valuations has seemingly disappeared in the blink of an eye. Many are pounding the table with a bear market narrative capturing your attention and emotions but is there anything truly different this time?

There are many different factors at play in this volatile market environment but in our opinion none of them are really all that new nor are they indicative of a bear market, a recession, or impending crash. We’ll briefly touch on each of them but at the end of this article you may be surprised to learn why we believe this market could bounce strongly when least expected.

Currently there are three factors that are dramatically impacting the markets: China, Oil and the Fed. It appears that when these are combined it creates a combustible combination that not even the most seasoned analysts know how to handle! The reality is that the stock market and all the ‘experts’, who analyze and report on it, seem to have short-term memories. For lack of a better description people have also been put to sleep and forget what it’s like to see a normal market correction. Let’s quickly break them down and attempt to put them in perspective: Continue reading →

China kicks off 2016 with a New Year’s hangover!

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New Year 2016 #2Dear Mr. Market:

Happy New Year and welcome to 2016!  With a new calendar comes hope and optimism! 2015 was a challenging year for the equity markets, it was actually the worst year since 2008 and if you had exposure to the energy sector (as almost everyone does) it was one of the worst on record. Investors were waiting for a new trading year with great anticipation, much like children looking at gifts waiting under the Christmas tree. Well… take a deep breath, the market is getting spanked on the first trading day of the year opening down over 2% thanks in part largely due to China. What does this mean for the rest of 2016? Continue reading →

WILL VS. TRUST – WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?

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Catching

Dear Mr. Market:

The stock market has been rather nasty as of late so let us switch gears and touch on a topic that most investors avoid yet need to pay more attention to. After all, what exactly happens to your investments when you’re gone? Do you actually need a living trust or would a will suffice? We reached out to Mindy Baldwin, an estate planner in Rancho Santa Margarita for expertise on this topic:

The terms “will” and “trust” come up often when doing estate planning. Many people assume that these terms mean the same thing and use them interchangeably. However, wills and trusts are different documents that are used in different circumstances.   Continue reading →

Investing in a New World: Cyber Crime and Terrorism

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WorldTerrorismDear Mr. Market:

Normally…we write you letters about the stock market… its events, reactions, and implications. At the end of the day…none of it matters if you’re not alive or breathing. As real as that last sentence is… it prompts us to analyze how the world is changing and what we need to do in order to survive.

As an investor, your job (at least how we have defined it) is to design a plan and adjust it accordingly to outside circumstances and your personal needs/goals. What gets complicated…is successfully investing while adhering to these three things: Continue reading →

The Baby Boomer Retirement Crisis

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“When there is blood in the water…the sharks will come!”

sharks - dmmThis isn’t a quote from ‘Shark Week’ on the Discovery Channel, it is an accurate summary of what is currently happening as financial firms are targeting a huge demographic that will continue to grow in our country. The baby boomer generation (born 1946 – 1964) has made a dramatic impact on our country throughout their lives and now they’re all entering or nearing retirement. Every single day there are 10,000 additional baby boomers turning 65! As they enter retirement and roll over their retirement accounts, they find themselves being targeted by various firms attempting to ‘feed’ on their hard-earned savings. This year FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) has filed several ‘cease-and-desist’ orders against financial firms for these practices and also launched the FINRA Securities Helpline for Seniors at 844-57-HELPS or 844-574-3577 in an effort to address this growing issue.

FINRA reported that the hotline received several hundred calls as soon as it was opened from individuals ranging in age from 45 – 99. The regulatory agencies realize they need to get ahead of this crisis as it will only continue to grow with each passing year. This spring the SEC and FINRA released a report titled “National Senior Investor Initiative”, the study focused on 44 national firms, looking at the products and services that were sold by their representatives to senior investors.   Below are the results based on the revenue generated and the frequency that they were purchased at the firms: Continue reading →

Q3 2015 Stock Market: Déjà vu of 2011 not 2008!

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stock-market-correctionDear Mr. Market:

Have you ever watched an old rerun of your favorite TV show or perhaps enjoyed the same movie twice? Of course you have…

Can the same be said for watching similar patterns in the stock market? While nobody wants to see the market go through a nasty quarter like we just witnessed, like it or not, it will happen again. Stock market corrections are not predictable and they air on their own time!

Our opinion, however, is that the stock market in 2015 is very much like the one we saw in 2011. History may not always unfold just as it has before, but several patterns and background indicators tell us that there is a lot to learn from the 2011 stock market year. Take a quick peak at the end of this article for a visual representation of how the markets did from May to late October in 2011 and 2015.

Most of us can’t remember what we had for dinner last night so as a quick refresher let’s summarize what was going on in 2011:

During the summer of 2011 all of the news headlines and the overall narrative was absolutely negative. The sovereign debt crisis in Greece rattled nerves daily. Comparisons of Greece vanishing were eerily similar to the disaster of Lehman Brothers going bankrupt just three years prior. Almost all the financial pundits also talked about the Fed raising interest rates and what a devastating impact that would have on the market. Sound familiar??? Continue reading →

5 ‘Investment Strategies’ Investors Must Avoid

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DMM 10-20-15Dear Mr. Market:

The markets continue to take investors on a bumpy ride with dramatic swings to the positive and negative.   Volatility has been here for the last several weeks and it is beginning to have an effect on investors and the decisions they make in regards to their portfolios. Investors are notorious for putting their portfolio on cruise control when the markets are doing well and then becoming hyper-sensitive when negative returns start appearing on their monthly statements.   With the first true market correction (-10% or more) in nearly four years, investors are considering a variety of options with their portfolios, many of them misleading and possibly disastrous. As fear and uncertainty build emotions begin to take control. There are many products and options that prey on investors in these environments…don’t allow yourself to fall for any of the five most common ones we discuss below…

Going to Cash – This is the classic move by investors when they simply can’t take it anymore; throwing their hands up in the air and admitting defeat by selling everything and going to cash. They justify it in their mind, feeling good about it; after all, jumping out and preserving what was left of their portfolio seems like the prudent thing to do. If this is you or you are considering this ‘strategy’ don’t start patting yourself on the back just yet! This could possibly be the worst move an investor could make unless they want to push back their retirement or drastically alter their financial goals. Consider this, every year for the last 35 years the markets have posted negative returns at some point during the year and 87% of the time the markets finished the year positive. Selling everything in your portfolio would be comparable to buying a new car and selling it as soon as you drive it off the lot because you realized that it went down 20% in value! Would you ever do that? We doubt it so don’t do this with your investments! Continue reading →