“The bubble is about to pop”, right? After years of the constant drumbeat about an “inevitable” recession, the market is sitting near record highs again. But for those paying attention, the mood under the surface feels different. The leadership baton is being transferred …not toward the headline-making names that powered the last leg of the bull run, but toward the quiet, defensive corners of the market: utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. The kinds of stocks you buy when growth gets wobbly and investors start seeking shelter.
And yet, despite the sector rotation, the broader indexes remain firm. It’s almost as if you’re daring us to overthink it.
This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opportunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about. While NCAA teams battle for supremacy on the court, our annual March Madness Investing Bracket pits stocks and ETFs against each other to determine the investment themes we think are likely to outperform the remainder of the year. The competition spans four “regions”: Large Cap, Small & Mid Cap, International, and Bonds & Alternatives.
Who will be this year’s champion? Let’s break it down (click here to see the full bracket).
Are you enjoying the Senate confirmation hearings with all the theater, finger pointing, and viral media clips? From an investment standpoint there was one hearing to pay attention to on Wednesday and that was with President-elect Trump’s pick for Energy Secretary, Chris Wright. At first glance he certainly touts the “drill baby drill” narrative but Wright said he’s excited about geothermal (heat energy that comes from the Earth) as “an enormous, abundant energy resource below everyone’s feet.” Wright said he wants to accelerate the development of nuclear energy so it can meet a far greater share of the world’s demand for electricity.
Have you also noticed how small things often pack a big punch? Microchips power our digital world, microplastics remind us of our environmental duties, and now microreactors are poised to redefine how we think about energy. Let’s dive into whether this is the investment opportunity of the century or just another overhyped promise in the energy space.
If your alma mater or favorite college team did not make the tournament on Selection Sunday, we’ve got another option for you!
Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together.
My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about in the year ahead.
Click here or below to see or enlarge the entire bracket for 2024.
Our Final Four Investing Bracket slots 48 positions against each other and we mainly want to show why we see one investment doing better than another over the course of the next year. One caveat to keep in mind is that while there are 48 total investments within our bracket, it does not mean we like them all; some are there for illustrative purposes or to discuss a certain theme playing out in the stock market. Lastly, the way these are initially “seeded” does not reflect our current confidence in them. For example, a #1 seeded investment could lose right out of the gate just as a #12 could potentially win it all. In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year.
SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) logo is seen through broken glass in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
A part of us cringes as we succumb to the pressure of having to write about the most recent worrisome headline. Why? It’s sort of like the Kardashians or trashy television personalities in general; the more you talk about it the more it gives some the perception that it’s worth talking about. Now, don’t get us wrong….theses recent headlines aren’t a cause for celebration by any means either but if it’s prompting you to cash out of the market, board up your windows, buy ammo, grow vegetables, or raise chickens in the backyard, you’re repeating an age old mistake. But… “the sky is falling” and “it’s different this time”, right? Not really, but rather it’s once again time to put things in perspective, look at data instead of narrative, facts over fear, and who knows…possibly find opportunities?!
And so are we… The world stopped pretty much everything at one point during the pandemic and sports were of course no exception. For true sports fans there was nothing more depressing than watching cornhole tournaments or empty arenas void of fans, sounds, and energy. Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together.
We’re proud to say that My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others.
Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about in the year ahead.
Click here or below to enlarge and see the entire bracket for 2023.
You’ve heard us barking about this before but as the world navigates its way out of the Covid-19 pandemic, it won’t be just the stock market that recovers. In many respects the market has mainly bounced back due to a lot of “sugar in the blood” from massive fiscal stimulus and has still primarily been led by some mega cap names. What’s brewing below the surface and actually could turn into something far more sustainable, is a boom in commodities.
Have you ever heard the expression “Even a blind squirrel find a nut once in a while?”
We’ve written you hundreds of letters over the past decade and on occasion it’s nice to put a face with the name! Last week, Matt Pixa of My Portfolio Guide, LLC, was given the honor and opportunity to present an Economic Outlook to the Seal Beach Chamber of Commerce.
We share it with you here and look forward to your feedback and questions!
We won’t rehash what’s happened to the stock market due to the global pandemic of COVID-19. Like many right now, it’s been overwhelming and just hearing the word “Coronavirus” with constant updates has become all-consuming in everything we do. That said, there will of course be areas of the stock market that continue to get punished but others that provide opportunity once we get through this.
We believe the broad market will recover to the full levels we recently saw within the next three years. Some economic sectors, however, will struggle more than others as have a few additional conflicts to resolve. One such sector is oil and with the SaudiArabia and Russian trade spat we saw U.S. oil prices drop -34% in one night! Which stocks will survive and which have the best chance to recover?
We don’t make it a regular practice to be ambulance chasers every time there is a tragedy or natural disaster. That being said, almost every major event (whether it’s considered good or bad) can create an opportunity for your investment portfolio.
Conversely, the old adage of “less is more”, could certainly apply here. We’re not simpletons just for the sake of it but in general the ‘less is more’ approach can greatly benefit your finances. Think about it…and if you haven’t already, we’ll spell out several major ways that having less of something will benefit your wallet: Continue reading →
Dear Mr. Market: 