Author Archives: Matt@DearMrMarket.com

Dean Foods: What did Santa wash down his cookies with?

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unknown-4Dear Mr. Market:

Normally we write you a series of letters about the stock market or the economy. As we wrap up 2016, however, we decided to share an article that was recently published on Seeking Alpha. The proverbial ‘Santa Claus rally’ seems to perhaps have taken place before Christmas this year but what opportunities might there be going into 2017?

This interview reviews questions around a stock we’re interested in adding to some portfolios; Dean Foods (DF). Enjoy!

Summary

  • Despite trading at 52-week highs (and ~30% gain over the last three months), DF is still undervalued relative to peers.
  • As the clear market leader in fluid dairy, DF enjoys significant economies of scale – a critical advantage in a commodity-related business.
  • “Skating to wear the puck is going” with leading position in healthy dairy products such as TruMoo.
  • Friendly’s ice cream acquisition was immediately accretive, highly complementary, and further cemented its growing position in branded ice cream.
  • Takeover rumors that surfaced in October provide a floor for the stock.

Continue reading →

Tax code changes in 2017, how will they impact you?

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Dear Mr. Market:

tax1You’ve posted some very impressive performance since Donald Trump’s victory in the recent presidential election. While the debate will continue in regards to what changes will take place with the new regime in Washington D.C., individuals are contemplating how they will be impacted. What can you expect and how might you be able to make some strategic moves to take advantage of these changes? Let’s specifically look at what Trump and his team are proposing to change with the current tax laws and how it will impact your finances both today and in the foreseeable future.

With Trump in the White House and Republicans taking control over both the House and Senate, tax cuts are virtually a sure thing. Our current tax codes have individuals paying rates on a graduated level with seven brackets ranging from 10% to 39.6%. What many don’t realize is that with ‘Obamacare’ the top tax bracket pays an additional 3.8% on net investment income which brings their rate to 43.4%. Here are some key points to keep in mind as we move into 2017 and the potential changes: Continue reading →

‘Twas the Day of the Election…Stock market rally or sell-off?

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img_59101Dear Mr. Market:

It’s that time of year again….here comes the holidays. One of the most famous Christmas poems ever begins like this:

‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro’ the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;

What if we changed a few words to reflect what Mr. Market will be thinking about instead of sugarplums and Christmas stockings? What is he thinking on Election Day?

‘Twas the day of the Election, when all through the nation

Every citizen was encouraged to get to a voting station;

Constant stories of Wikileaks and groping

Had every American and the stock market moping;

The media was franticly filling their time with endless chatter

All in hopes that our eyeballs would think a new President would matter;

Whether you’re liberal or conservative we all want a sound future for our girls and boys

As it relates to the stock market it simply prays for an end to this noise;

So goodnight to all and may you wake tomorrow

Knowing full well that some will be joyful and others in total sorrow.

We’ve obviously abbreviated our stock market poem to center on the real question so many investors have: Will this election result drive the markets higher or lower? Continue reading →

How will Taxes impact you after the Election?

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taxes-2016Dear Mr. Market:

Don’t over think this…quickly name two of the most polarizing topics you can think of. Allow us to throw two out that are often top of mind but very few people actually want to dig in and address…. Politics and Taxes. Both of these ‘ugly’ topics are incredibly relevant as we move closer to an election day that is quickly approaching and will impact nearly everyone for the foreseeable future!

Keep in mind that the information we are sharing is based on what each candidate is currently proposing and could be outdated within minutes of us publishing this article. It is also important to remember that any tax policy changes require congressional approval … one more reason to keep a close eye on this election! We won’t dig into every detail of their tax proposals or share our opinions, but rather highlight some basic facts and allow you to form your own opinions. Continue reading →

10 Rules on Stock Picking

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Dear Mr. Market:

We’ve written countless letters to you on the ups and downs of the stock market. This time, however, we’d like to share some ‘rules of the road’ and a guideline on how to pick stocks regardless of the environment you’re presenting us.

Click here to read the latest white paper written by My Portfolio Guide, LLC.

Cheers!

PS- If you have questions or would like more information on this white paper or others…please send us a note below:

← Back

Thank you for your response. ✨

Cheers to a stock that beats the market and its peers!

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Dear Mr. Market:

We find ourselves back in earnings season, which always brings several surprises with well-known stocks…both positive and negative. Analysts and the media will tempt investors to chase returns as quarterly earnings are dissected and trading ‘advice’ is thrown around like a hot dog vendor working the crowd at a baseball game.

Our world is currently swimming in uncertainty which pushes investors to hunt for stability and returns that will enable them to reach their financial goals. Imagine if there was a stock that has posted impressive returns in both up and down markets and all the while you most likely have been supporting it yourself without even realizing it!

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is an international beverage producer and marketer with operations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and Italy. They own iconic brands like: Robert Mondavi, Svedka Vodka, Ballast Point, Corona and Modelo to name just a few. In total they currently have over 100 brands in their portfolio with sales in 100 countries, 40 facilities and approximately 9,000 employees. In 2015 Constellation was one of the top performing stocks in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index. Continue reading →

Brexit too shall pass…

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Dear Mr. Market:

You hate uncertainty; that fact has been established from the day you began trading. If the rest of the investing public hasn’t heard about “Brexit” vs “Bremain”…it’s not necessarily a bad thing. There is always something to worry about and now with a vote by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union the potential implications and chants of uncertainty will continue to create worry and panic.

Ironically enough, even amidst all the doom and gloom, the world is not that much different than before the vote. Although the U.K. surprised many with its vote to leave the EU, this decision and the potential fallout will take a couple of years to fully play itself out. Even though there will clearly be political uncertainty and initial volatility (which is natural)…the UK will have two years to negotiate the terms of its exit and establish a new relationship with the EU. Although there won’t be a shortage of opinions, this doesn’t imply an automatic death to the stock market!

It’s times like these that are EXACTLY why people overreact and make critical mistakes. Once people get over their initial reaction (shock, surprise, fear etc) the markets will see relief in knowing there is a result and a definitive decision. In other words…there will be some basic element of certainty and that allows markets to naturally correct and go back to moving based on actual fundamentals as opposed to speculative forces or fear.

What should one do in the near-term and will this lead to something worse? Continue reading →

Who does Mr. Market vote for…Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

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Dear Mr. Market:

160323171742-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-investors-780x439How dare we put you on the spot like this?!? What an awful question! How will you (the stock market) react if Trump wins or if Hillary wins? By the way…as an aside….a great client of ours recently asked why everyone refers to Trump by his last name and Hillary by her first name. Why is that?

Depending on which side you’re on, this question may initially seem like simple semantics but it’s not. Are you “presidential” if you roll with a campaign based on your first name? Do you “feel the Bern” or did you “Trust in Ted”? Whether you’re a proponent of Hillary for President or Hillary for prison…it’s still Hillary. Where are we at America?

At My Portfolio Guide, the one thing we typically don’t shy away from is having a clear opinion. There are some great firms out there that simply can’t give you one! You’ll hear what you want to hear. They fear losing your “vote” or ruffling feathers. Yes…we understand that balance too, but as much as our job is about deciphering news versus noise…it does become important to take a stance. Continue reading →

Financial legislation that finally benefits YOU!

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DOL3Dear Mr. Market:

Recently the Department of Labor announced new legislation that will have a profound impact on the financial services industry. What is refreshing is that the focus is on the individual investor, protecting their retirement accounts from predatory practices that have unfortunately become the norm on Wall Street. The new regulations will help protect individuals, and in many cases, open their eyes to what has been unfortunately taking place with their accounts for years.

While the document that addresses the new guidelines is 1,023 pages long, what it addresses at its core is that financial advisors must act as a fiduciary when working with qualified accounts. It is estimated that investors will save $17 billion a year after exorbitant fees and charges are eliminated! It has been well documented that we have a ‘retirement crisis’ as the average U.S. consumer is not saving enough for their retirement. Hopefully the focus and legislation we’re starting to see will give people more confidence to save and invest.

The legislation focuses on advisors that offer advice on qualified accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s, Simple and SEP IRAs) and requires that they must act as a fiduciary. This means that advisors must do what is in the client’s best interest and put them ahead of their own. Sounds like common sense, right? What might shock many investors is that the ‘trusted’ advisor they have worked with for years might be anything but a fiduciary, many of them viewing their client’s assets as a revenue-generating machine lining their own pockets and financing their extravagant lifestyles.

“With the finalization of this rule, we are putting in place a fundamental

protection into the American retirement landscape. A consumer’s

best interest must now come before an advisor’s financial interest.

This is a huge win for the middle class.”

Tom Perez, Labor Secretary

Continue reading →