Everyone wants to be associated with a winner. We are all familiar with the famous quote, “the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat” from ABC’s Wide World of Sports. Imagine that you are at a sporting event, you glance at the scoreboard but it shows nothing … at the end of the game you have no clue if your team won or loss. Some people claim your team won while others are not so sure. Mr. Market does exactly this to investors with their investment portfolios on a consistent basis. As an investor how do you effectively gauge how your investment portfolio has performed and if you are victorious or humiliated in defeat?
The media would have us all believe that investors should use the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) as a benchmark against their portfolios. Turn on the nightly news or open a newspaper and you will quickly spot what each index closed at and what percentage they are up or down for the year. While everyone would agree that it’s important to have a sense of how the market is performing, is this the proper measuring stick investors should use to gauge how their own investments are performing?
A quick summary of the indices the media force-feed us on a daily basis: Continue reading →
Unless you’ve never picked up a financial magazine or read the business section of any newspaper, you have undoubtedly heard of the old investment adage “Sell in May and go away”. Many financial “experts” and journalists do their best to paint the summer months as those that are primed to underperform. Does history always repeat itself in exactly the same way? Nope. It’s not hard to find investors who sold last spring (or even the one prior) in anticipation of a nasty summer and they are still in cash or underweight equities. If you’re in that boat and don’t trust the stock market, you may sleep better at night for now but in the interim you’ve lost opportunity cost and missed another bull market.
The flip side to this is that bearish investors will eventually be right! The S&P 500 has not had a correction of -10% or more since October 3, 2011. Like many investors out there we firmly believe a correction of -10% to -20% is coming this year but we don’t think it will be the start of a bear market. The challenge behind all of this, however, is that the longer we go without a healthy correction the deeper and more severe the inevitable sell-off will be. Continue reading →
The markets are constantly moving from one headline to the next – some of them having a profound impact on the markets. Last Sunday night “60 Minutes” aired a topic that has been lurking in the shadows for years, suddenly it jumped up and grabbed headlines raising concerns and paranoia with investors. High Frequency Trading (HFT) has dominated headlines over the last week prompting a federal investigation and hours of debate.
Michael Lewis, author of “Flash Boys”, has been on a publicity tour claiming the U.S. Stock Market is ‘rigged’. Is the average investor at a disadvantage, on the outside looking in at the security exchanges? This week we encourage you to view a letter being sent to our clients and friends of the firm (High Frequency Trading letter) Continue reading →
March has turned in another month of stubborn market defiance as the investment world is waiting for a correction yet it never seems to come or fully develop! It’s without question that many of the warning signs continue to lurk below the surface but the S&P 500 has still managed to tack on about another +1%. Year to date we’re just about 1% of where we started 2014 but it sure feels uncomfortable for many.
If this is your first time reading about our MPG Core Tactical Portfolio please refer back to our first post. (click here) In short you will see what adjustments we make throughout the year on a $1 million dollar portfolio and how that performs relative to a portfolio that is rebalanced once per month with an allocation of 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds. Continue reading →
Apparently you’re kicking off February much like you wrapped up January; in correction mode.
A stock market correction is actually not a bad thing and in this case it’s actually a MUCH needed one. If you’re anything close to being a long-term investor you should be hoping for at least a 10% haircut at some point before 2014 wraps up. Without a breather or some form of consolidation this market has no chance to build a base and move to higher levels by year-end.
If you had a fairly well balanced and allocated portfolio in 2013 you probably looked at your statements and saw that bonds were not just dead weight but rather a huge drag on performance. Not only did the overall bond market lose at least -2% for the year, the proverbial “writing on the wall” was being etched in permanent ink ; bonds had zero upside and only risk associated with them. If rates are to rise, as so many speculate they will, we could see bonds sting investors worse than any other time in history. Bottom line: That’s scary stuff for anyone in the typical 60 / 40 model…
The place to be in 2013 was stocks, but let’s be honest… Did you really trust them to keep going higher and higher? Did a +32% return for the S&P 500 feel “real” to you? Most people we talk to still don’t trust stocks but they ironically weren’t invested in them as much as they would’ve liked. Those that couldn’t resist a record breaking stock market finally cut bait on their bonds. Unfortunately, the reality is that our 5 year stock market party is possibly coming to an end…or at least a healthy pause. Continue reading →
Congratulations Mr. Market…you’ve delivered a tremendous year of returns to equity investors! With the broad equity markets delivering returns over 25% (S&P =29%, DJIA = 25% and the NASDAQ = 37% as of 12/27/2013) investors are now faced with the question of what to do now? For those investors that were invested in stocks, especially domestic stocks, year-end statements are going to look very impressive but remember that is only on paper. As we step into 2014 what should investors do with their portfolios?
Often investors choose to go with an adage commonly heard in casinos – “Let it ride!” Although the market defied odds and dodged several ominous obstacles, there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so going forward. Sitting back and doing nothing could very well allow those returns to dwindle away and become nothing but a memory. It wasn’t that long ago that ‘The Tech Bubble’ hit investors with a strong left uppercut that they never saw coming. Mr. Market delivered three years of impressive returns (1997 = 33%, 1998 = 28% & 1999 = 21%) only to see it disappear with three consecutive years of negative returns (2000 = -9%, 2001 = -11%, 2002 = -22%) and let’s not forget 2008 (-37%). How can investors avoid repeating history while also managing the risk and unrealized gains in their portfolio? Continue reading →
Today we’re going to talk all about you and how you whipsaw investors into panic with stock market corrections. What exactly is a correction anyway?
To some this sounds like a simple question; to others, and judging on how they act with their investing decisions, it’s clearly not.
By definition a bear market is one that has stock prices falling by 20% or more and lasts for at least two months. A stock market correction is much shorter and is typically fast in nature. Corrections often come on the heels of investor pessimism or after a bearish story that later is found to be a relatively meaningless event. In other words, corrections bring a whole different sort of emotion to the game than a bear market.