Category Archives: ETF

MPG Core Tactical 60/40: June 2014 Performance Update

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MW-BB798_sm6040_20130422180557_MD

Dear Mr. Market:

How did you treat everyone in June?

Last month we wrote about how “Sell in May and go away” did not work and for those expecting a correction…June would have to be the month something finally gives. Alas, for those in the bear camp we saw no such thing as a “June swoon” and the correction that has never come is still lurking out there somewhere. Everyone has telegraphed it by now and the longer we go without one the more severe it could be….or will it?

More importantly, is it even worthwhile trying to prepare for it? Can you prepare your portfolio for a market correction like you would your house for a natural disaster like an earthquake or a hurricane? Sure…you can but should you?

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” –Peter Lynch Continue reading →

Independent Review of the Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX)

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fidelity logoDear Mr. Market:

You need to hear about another mutual fund like you need a new hole in your head. That being said, however, how about we talk about one that’s been around for a long time? They must be doing something well….right?

We’ve certainly not held back with our opinion in the past when it comes to mutual funds. While they certainly can warrant a spot in many portfolios, they need to be reviewed and compared carefully to their peers and other investment options. Today we are going to take an in-depth look at a fund we see in many portfolios but very few individuals actually understand what it is. The Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) is one of the largest actively managed equity mutual funds there is with assets just under $110 billion! Continue reading →

3 Common Diversification Mistakes

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Dear Mr. Market:Diversification 2

Whether you handle your portfolio or hire a professional to manage it, there is no way you have not heard of the importance of diversifying your investments. The reality is, however, most investors fall prey to one of three major diversification mistakes; which of the three is your issue?

First and foremost, let’s briefly review what diversification is:

Investopedia defines Diversification as: ‘A risk management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The rationale behind this technique contends that a portfolio of different kinds of investments will, on average, yield higher returns and pose a lower risk than any individual investment found within the portfolio.’

At first glance this makes sense and doesn’t appear to be complex, right? We find that investors typically appear to be in one of three different camps when it comes to diversification:

  1. Under Diversification
  2. Improper Diversification
  3. Over Diversification

Let’s take a moment to look at each and how investors can get their portfolios back on track. Continue reading →

MPG Core Tactical 60/40: May 2014 Performance Update

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MW-BB798_sm6040_20130422180557_MDDear Mr. Market:

Where have you been? Whenever you get quiet like this it makes us even a bit more nervous.

Hopefully you didn’t succumb to the alluring sounds coming from those in the “bear camp” last month. If you were tempted to “sell in May and go away” it still just wasn’t meant to be. As cute and trendy as that old investment adage is, we must remind you that it doesn’t necessarily have a specific date in mind. Proponents of this theme merely imply that the summer months are the ones to avoid and if there ever was a month of May to make this move…it was now. Or was it?

Now that the “sell in May” adage looks flat out stupid, you can perhaps resort to a “June Swoon” for the eye candy headline of the day. After all, June is the 10th worst calendar month of the year. Since 1950 it’s basically been a flat month but more recent history points to June losing an average of -1.33% over the past 10 years.

It’s not so much the market or serious investors that love catchy phrases but it’s those that feed you the news who are the perpetrators. If this article were being written in November we would have many of the same concerns as we do now. Many of the catch phrases will be stale by then but in the interim…much like a broken clock tells time correctly twice a day…eventually the bears will be right. Contrarian investors will point to this immediate period as the market climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”… or is it now a “slope of hope”?

Here’s the current summary of the MPG Core Tactical 60/40 portfolio mix, which is updated as of this writing (June 9, 2014).

Click here to compare the MPG Core Tactical Portfolio against the 60/40 benchmark.

What adjustments did we make? Continue reading →

High Frequency Trading – How does it impact you?

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HTF robotsDear Mr. Market:

The markets are constantly moving from one headline to the next – some of them having a profound impact on the markets. Last Sunday night “60 Minutes” aired a topic that has been lurking in the shadows for years, suddenly it jumped up and grabbed headlines raising concerns and paranoia with investors. High Frequency Trading (HFT) has dominated headlines over the last week prompting a federal investigation and hours of debate.

Michael Lewis, author of “Flash Boys”, has been on a publicity tour claiming the U.S. Stock Market is ‘rigged’. Is the average investor at a disadvantage, on the outside looking in at the security exchanges? This week we encourage you to view a letter being sent to our clients and friends of the firm (High Frequency Trading letter) Continue reading →

MPG Core Tactical 60 /40: March 2014 Performance Update

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MW-BB798_sm6040_20130422180557_MDDear Mr. Market:

March has turned in another month of stubborn market defiance as the investment world is waiting for a correction yet it never seems to come or fully develop! It’s without question that many of the warning signs continue to lurk below the surface but the S&P 500 has still managed to tack on about another +1%. Year to date we’re just about 1% of where we started 2014 but it sure feels uncomfortable for many.

If this is your first time reading about our MPG Core Tactical Portfolio please refer back to our first post. (click here) In short you will see what adjustments we make throughout the year on a $1 million dollar portfolio and how that performs relative to a portfolio that is rebalanced once per month with an allocation of 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds. Continue reading →

Update: March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2014

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March MadnessThe 2014 NCAA Basketball Tournament certainly had an eventful weekend!  52 games have been played across the country with 5 of them going into overtime. The $1 Billion that Warren Buffett offered to anyone that had a perfect bracket is now a distant memory. Every year there are plenty of surprises and this year has been no different:

  • 3 of the 4 teams that were seeded as #12 in their brackets posted wins over teams seeded #5! The one team that lost was beaten by only 3 points in overtime!
  • #1 seed and ‘media darling’ Wichita State lost to #8 Kentucky in the 2nd round.
  • The 2 longest winning streaks in the country have both come to an abrupt end – Wichita State with 35 and S.F. Austin with 29.

 Here are some other mind boggling numbers to take into consideration with the NCAA Tournament:

  • The odds of winning Buffet’s $1 Billion prize was 1 in 4,294,967,296!
  • It is estimated that Vegas takes in over $100 Million from bets on the NCAA Tournament – experts think this represents only 4% of all the money wagered on games!
  • The NCAA tournament costs businesses $1.7 Billion in lost productivity during the month of March.

Continue reading →

Is it time to buy Gold?

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images-32Dear Mr. Market:

Over the past few weeks the world has been focused on Gold as world class athletes compete at the Winter Olympics in Sochi. These athletes have dedicated their lives towards the dream of standing on the awards podium and having an Olympic medal placed around their neck. Gold is certainly used to capturing headlines over the last several years as as its returns caught major attention.

Mr. Market rarely considers gold to be a worthwhile investment or warrant a place in anyones portfolio. We’ve written a few articles about the precious metal over the last few years but honestly haven’t given it much press. Why is so little of our attention given to gold as an investment? Let’s be blunt about it… There is plenty of market chatter already given to Gold and most of it is nothing but noise. We prefer to touch on it at key inflection points and this happens to be one of them.

The first article we wrote was our most popular. This piece was written when the stock market was getting hit every week and gold was doing just the opposite; it was setting record highs and receiving all the glory. Writing a piece about why why we didn’t want to buy gold was not popular at the time but now it sure seems like our crystal ball was as spot on as it could ever have been. Here is the article, we would encourage you to read it again if you haven’t already (Click here) Continue reading →

The New “MyRA” … A Direct Route To Retirement Or A Bad Detour?

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Dear Mr. Market:

MyRA#7

If you ask the average hard working American what their top financial concern is, it’s that that they won’t be able to retire.  We could certainly go on and on about different solutions and how people can get on track to make their dreams a reality but today we will focus on a new program offered from the government.  On January 29th President Obama delivered his State of the Union address.  One of the takeaways from this speech was a new retirement account called MyRA (short for My Retirement Account).

Currently over half of the U.S. workforce is not covered by a retirement plan through their employer.  MyRA is targeted at low to middle-income workers, encouraging them to save for their own retirement.  Contributions will be funded through automatic payroll deductions where individuals can start with as little as $25 and contribute amounts as small as $5.  Individuals would be guaranteed that their account would never go down and they will not pay any fees on the accounts.  Sounds like a great product doesn’t it?!  Well let’s take a step back and dig a bit deeper to really explore what the MyRA is all about….

The MyRA can essentially be viewed as a way to introduce individuals that have not saved or funded a retirement account to the many long-term benefits of doing so. At this point companies are not required to be involved in the program, if President Obama wants to force employers to participate a vote from Congress would be required.  The accounts would be funded with after tax dollars much like a Roth IRA.  While it will be funded with payroll deductions individuals will be able to keep their accounts when they change jobs.  MyRA is subject to Roth IRA income and contributions limits.  Individuals can invest up to $5.500 per year (or $6,500 for investors 50 or older); once the owner reaches the age of 59 ½ they can make withdrawals tax-free.  There are also no required minimum distributions (R.M.D.’s). Continue reading →

How did your Portfolio do in January of 2014?

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MW-BB798_sm6040_20130422180557_MD

Dear Mr. Market:

Apparently you’re kicking off February much like you wrapped up January; in correction mode.

A stock market correction is actually not a bad thing and in this case it’s actually a MUCH needed one. If you’re anything close to being a long-term investor you should be hoping for at least a 10% haircut at some point before 2014 wraps up. Without a breather or some form of consolidation this market has no chance to build a base and move to higher levels by year-end.

If you had a fairly well balanced and allocated portfolio in 2013 you probably looked at your statements and saw that bonds were not just dead weight but rather a huge drag on performance. Not only did the overall bond market lose at least -2% for the year, the proverbial “writing on the wall” was being etched in permanent ink ; bonds had zero upside and only risk associated with them. If rates are to rise, as so many speculate they will, we could see bonds sting investors worse than any other time in history. Bottom line: That’s scary stuff for anyone in the typical 60 / 40 model…

The place to be in 2013 was stocks, but let’s be honest… Did you really trust them to keep going higher and higher? Did a +32% return for the S&P 500 feel “real” to you? Most people we talk to still don’t trust stocks but they ironically weren’t invested in them as much as they would’ve liked. Those that couldn’t resist a record breaking stock market finally cut bait on their bonds. Unfortunately, the reality is that our 5 year stock market party is possibly coming to an end…or at least a healthy pause. Continue reading →